Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s calculated outreach to retired President Uhuru Kenyatta has set in motion a fundamental realignment of Kenya’s opposition landscape, but the partnership carries risks that could undermine rather than strengthen the anti-government coalition ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The rapprochement between the two leaders, once bitter political adversaries during the 2022 campaign, represents a striking reversal. Yet beneath the surface of their apparent reconciliation lies a web of competing interests, rival presidential ambitions, and divergent political calculations that threaten to fragment the very voting bloc they seek to consolidate.
At the heart of this complexity is a simple arithmetic problem: Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party has endorsed former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i as its 2027 presidential candidate, creating an immediate tension with Gachagua’s own political vehicle, the Democracy for the Citizens Party.
The Mt Kenya Conundrum
The Mount Kenya region, with an estimated six to eight million voters, remains Kenya’s most coveted electoral prize. Both Gachagua and Kenyatta claim to speak for this constituency, but their visions for its political future diverge sharply.
During a November 2025 Jubilee Party meeting in Thika, Kenyatta made his position clear: “I’m supporting Matiang’i because of his capacity, not his tribe. In fact, I don’t even know his home; I’ve never visited him, but he is a hardworking leader”, signaling that his political calculus extends beyond regional loyalty.
Gachagua has adopted a more conciliatory tone in recent months. Speaking on Kameme FM in January 2026, he declared: “My work is to defend Uhuru from external attacks. For instance, I can’t be saying I am protecting the community and watch and see Uhuru getting vilified by those close to Ruto when I am quiet”.
This public defense of Kenyatta marks a dramatic shift from 2022, when Gachagua was among those who campaigned vigorously against the former president’s chosen candidate.
Three Principals, One Region
The emergence of three major political figures claiming to represent Mount Kenya—Gachagua, Kenyatta, and Matiang’i—has created what political analysts describe as a leadership crisis that could splinter the region’s electoral influence.
Dr. Joseph Mutua, a political commentator based in Nairobi, warns that this fragmentation plays directly into President William Ruto’s strategy. “While Gachagua seeks unity with Uhuru to stabilize his political base, such an alliance also revives Jubilee as an active political force in Mt Kenya, one that is likely to field candidates across the region,” he explained in an interview.
The competition extends beyond presidential ambitions to every level of government. Gachagua has publicly complained about Jubilee’s conduct during by-elections, stating: “Even after we agreed to jointly field Mr. Masikonde in Narok, Jubilee went behind our backs and issued a nomination certificate to Joshua Kaputa”.
The Matiang’i Factor
Fred Matiang’i’s presidential ambitions add another layer of complexity to the opposition’s power dynamics. The former Interior Cabinet Secretary, who served with distinction under Kenyatta’s administration, brings administrative credentials and a growing political profile that could appeal beyond ethnic lines.
During his May 2025 declaration speech in Kisii, Matiang’i stated: “You know very well that I am a doer because you saw it when I was serving this country as a minister. I went to work abroad because other people assumed power”.
His candidacy poses a particular challenge for Gachagua. In a January 2026 television interview, Gachagua warned Matiang’i against relying on established parties: “For me, I don’t know because I had given him advice, and it is not a must that he does what I tell him. I had told him to make a political party so that he could consolidate his political base”.
The tension reflects deeper anxieties within Gachagua’s camp. Former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu has argued that “Gachagua’s biggest problem with Matiang’i is that Matiang’i is the only candidate in the opposition who can come to Mount Kenya by himself and be accepted”.
Structural Challenges for DCP
Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party faces mounting challenges as it seeks to establish itself as the dominant force in Mount Kenya. The party, formed after his October 2024 impeachment, must compete not only with Jubilee but with a constellation of other regional parties.
Jubilee Party Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni has publicly criticized Gachagua’s approach, stating in January 2026: “I heard someone saying that in this region, we will only have one party. That is a very retrogressive statement”.
The challenge is compounded by defections. Multiple allies have abandoned Gachagua in recent weeks, with some citing “leadership style, financial strain, confusion in the party, conflict with rivals and pressure from the State” as reasons for their departure.
Despite these setbacks, Gachagua remains publicly optimistic. During a December 2025 party event, he declared: “I want to tell the naysayers that the future of Kenya is here. DCP will form the new government. Watch this space! We will not be distracted by anyone”.
The United Opposition Framework
Beyond the Mount Kenya dynamics, both Gachagua and Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party operate within the broader United Opposition coalition, which includes Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mithika Linturi, People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua, and DAP-K’s Eugene Wamalwa.
Former UN trade chief Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi was appointed in September 2025 as spokesperson and Head of Secretariat for the United Opposition, a move designed to provide professional coordination to the loose alliance.
The coalition faces its own internal tensions. During a January 2026 event in Murang’a, Gachagua explained the strategic rationale for delaying the announcement of a presidential candidate: “If we announce our candidate too early, our candidate will be confused completely. We will declare our flagbearer a few months before the election”.
This cautious approach reflects the delicate balance the opposition must maintain among competing presidential aspirants and their respective support bases.
Electoral Arithmetic and Political Leverage
The central question facing both Gachagua and Kenyatta is how their relationship affects their respective bargaining power in post-election negotiations, assuming the opposition succeeds in unseating President Ruto.
If Matiang’i consolidates support in both his Kisii homeland and a substantial portion of Mount Kenya through Kenyatta’s backing, he would enter negotiations with significant leverage. Political analyst Fred Sasia suggests that “Matiang’i could credibly argue that he brings votes from his home region as well as Mt Kenya, leaving Gachagua with fewer numbers to justify demands for a large stake in any future power-sharing arrangement”.
Conversely, if Gachagua succeeds in mobilizing Mount Kenya behind the United Opposition’s eventual candidate while maintaining his own distinct political identity, he strengthens his position as a regional kingmaker.
Gachagua has publicly endorsed Kalonzo Musyoka’s presidential credentials, describing him as “someone who will not betray Kenya” and citing “15 years of experience attempting to unseat sitting governments”, suggesting he may be positioning himself as a kingmaker rather than a direct presidential contender.
The Ruto Counter-Strategy
President Ruto has not stood idle as the opposition attempts to consolidate. His administration has deployed a multi-pronged strategy to counter Gachagua’s influence in Mount Kenya.
The President has placed key officials to neutralize Gachagua’s influence, including William Kabogo as his ICT minister strategist in Kiambu, and former Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Iria as chairperson for Public Procurement Regulatory Authority.
The November 2025 by-elections provided an early test of strength. While the UDA-ODM broad-based government won 18 out of 24 seats, the contests revealed both the government’s advantages and the opposition’s potential.
Gachagua dismissed the results, stating: “That was only a small dance before the main dance of 2027. Don’t dance yourself lame before the real contest”.
Ethical and Strategic Guardrails
The United Opposition has attempted to establish structural safeguards to prevent internal conflicts from derailing its mission. Coalition spokesperson Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi revealed in October 2025: “There were some parties at the door, but we decided to complete a document outlining the bare minimum principles each person must sign up to as a code of conduct to be part of the coalition’s leadership”.
These ethical frameworks are designed to filter out divisive figures and maintain coalition discipline as the 2027 election approaches.
The Path Forward
As Kenya moves deeper into the election cycle, the Gachagua-Kenyatta dynamic will likely continue to evolve. Their relationship embodies both the promise and the peril of opposition coalition-building in Kenya’s ethnic-based political system.
For Gachagua, the challenge is to maintain his position as Mount Kenya’s principal political voice while accommodating Kenyatta’s influence and Matiang’i’s ambitions. For Kenyatta, the question is whether his backing of Matiang’i strengthens or weakens his political legacy and influence.
According to a recent Infotrak poll, President Ruto’s broad-based camp commands 32 percent support, followed by the Gachagua-Musyoka group with 22 percent, suggesting the opposition still faces significant hurdles in building a winning coalition.
The next eighteen months will determine whether the complex relationship between Gachagua and Kenyatta produces the political unity necessary to challenge Ruto’s incumbency, or whether their competing interests fracture the opposition into ineffective factions.
Political analyst Martin Oloo offers a stark assessment: “For Ruto and his broad-based government to lose in 2027, there needs to be one big coalition like Narc. If the opposition does not unite, Ruto’s team will sponsor minority presidential candidates who chip away some votes.”
History suggests that unity, however fragile, can overturn even entrenched incumbency—but only if opposition leaders can subordinate individual ambition to collective purpose. Whether Gachagua, Kenyatta, and their allies can achieve that remains Kenya’s most consequential political question as the nation approaches its next democratic test.
