The world’s youngest nation stands on the precipice of renewed civil war as political tensions between President Salva Kiir and his detained rival, First Vice President Riek Machar, have erupted into widespread violence that threatens to unravel seven years of fragile peace.
“South Sudan is not simply facing a political standoff; it is sliding back into the conflict dynamics that drove earlier cycles of mass violence,” said Kelvin Maina, South Sudan researcher at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). “These are the same warning signs that preceded previous atrocities, and in this context, rushed elections without the basic conditions for credibility risk acting as a trigger for renewed large-scale violence rather than a route to stability.”
The Crisis Deepens
Since late December 2025, South Sudan has experienced rapid security deterioration. Fighting between government forces and opposition militias has spread across Jonglei, Upper Nile, Unity State, and parts of Equatoria, according to UN humanitarian reports.
The violence has extracted a devastating human toll. In Jonglei State alone, fighting between December 1, 2025, and January 23, 2026, reportedly killed at least 200 people, including no fewer than 40 civilians. More than 230,000 people have fled their homes in Jonglei in less than a month, according to the country’s Relief and Rehabilitation Commission. An additional 26,500 displaced persons have arrived in Mingkaman, Lakes State, seeking refuge.
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) and its allied Nuer-majority militias — particularly the White Army — have seized multiple government positions in recent weeks, forcing tactical withdrawals by the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF). In a troubling escalation, government forces ordered the evacuation of all civilians, United Nations personnel, and humanitarian staff from opposition-held Lou Nuer counties of Nyirol, Uror, and Akobo ahead of a planned offensive dubbed Operation Enduring Peace. Heavy clashes erupted January 26 on the outskirts of Yuai town as government troops pushed to reclaim lost territory.
Arrest Dismantles Peace Architecture
The current escalation follows a series of unilateral decisions by President Kiir that opposition members view as deliberate breaches of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). Most significantly, Machar was placed under house arrest on March 26, 2025, after an armed convoy of 20 vehicles entered his residence in Juba. According to Al Jazeera, government officials disarmed Machar’s bodyguards and delivered an arrest warrant on unclear charges.
On September 11, 2025, Machar was formally charged with murder, treason, and crimes against humanity related to an attack in Nasir, Upper Nile State, in March that killed 250 government soldiers. He was suspended from his position as first vice president. Machar made his first public appearance on September 22 inside a steel cage at a courtroom in Juba, alongside seven co-accused, in proceedings broadcast on national television.
The detention effectively dismantled one of the core safeguards of the 2018 peace deal, which established a power-sharing arrangement between Kiir’s government and Machar’s opposition. “The arrest of the First Vice President without due process undermines the rule of law and threatens the stability of the nation,” Reath Muoch Tang, chairman of SPLM/A-IO’s foreign relations committee, stated in a Facebook post following the arrest.
Interior Minister Angelina Teny, Machar’s wife, was also dismissed from her position and placed under house arrest. Opposition members loyal to Machar view these actions as calculated moves to consolidate power ahead of elections scheduled for December 2026.
Ethnic Mobilization and Inflammatory Rhetoric
The conflict has increasingly taken on ethnic dimensions, with fighting primarily along Dinka–Nuer lines. Kiir and much of his inner circle are Dinka, South Sudan’s largest ethnic group, while all 21 accused in Machar’s trial are Nuer, the country’s second-largest group. This ethnic polarization mirrors the patterns that characterized the 2013–2018 civil war, which killed an estimated 400,000 people and displaced millions.
Recent remarks by General Simon Gatwech, commander of the Agwelek militia and assistant chief of defense forces for mobilization and disarmament, to “spare no lives” have heightened concerns about potential atrocities. On January 16, Gatwech announced the fall of Pajut town in Jonglei State to rebel forces, signaling the near-collapse of a separate peace agreement his Kitgwang faction had signed with the government.
The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) expressed grave concern on January 25 over reports of threats involving indiscriminate violence against civilians. Both government and opposition forces have traded accusations of weaponizing cattle raids to spread terror in enemy territory, according to conflict monitors.
Regional Implications and Uganda’s Role
The escalating violence carries significant regional implications. Uganda has deployed thousands of soldiers to protect Juba, a move the opposition claims enables inter-ethnic conflict. In an open letter written before his arrest, Machar argued that Uganda’s military presence violated and endangered the 2018 peace agreement — a statement Foreign Policy identified as a potential trigger for his subsequent detention.
The emergence of new rebel groups, including Operation Rescue South Sudan and the Red Belt Group, threatens further fragmentation of the conflict landscape. Combined with ongoing humanitarian crises — including severe food insecurity affecting 7.7 million people and disease outbreaks in flood-affected areas — the situation presents a multidimensional emergency.
According to UN humanitarian assessments, South Sudan has received over 1.3 million refugees and returnees from neighboring Sudan since April 2023, placing immense pressure on the country’s already strained resources. The Sudan conflict continues to interrupt oil production, further crippling government finances.
Elections Amid Chaos
The December 22, 2026, elections are intended to end the extended transitional period established under the R-ARCSS. However, the political landscape has deteriorated dramatically. In December 2025, the government agreed to defer the permanent constitution and national census until after the elections — moves that opposition figures claim will favor the incumbent government.
The SPLM/A-IO faction loyal to Machar insists these prerequisites are essential for credible polls and views the current process as fundamentally flawed. Machar’s party was notably absent from December consultations that reaffirmed the election timeline, raising questions about the inclusivity of the electoral process.
Opposition commanders have issued threats to march on Juba, which is currently protected by both SSPDF forces and Ugandan troops. The government has responded with promises to crush the rebellion and recapture lost territory. On January 25, the SSPDF ordered a 48-hour evacuation of civilians and aid workers from three opposition-controlled counties, signaling an imminent major offensive.
“The stakes of this trial are existentially high for South Sudan,” said Daniel Akech, a South Sudan expert with the International Crisis Group, in comments to Al Jazeera. “If the process is not managed with extreme political care, the fallout could shatter the country’s fragile cohesion and trigger a collapse of the state.”
International Community Sounds Alarm
The international community has responded with increasingly urgent warnings. UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated he was “deeply concerned” by the continued escalation of violence and alarmed by inflammatory rhetoric targeting specific communities. He called on all parties to protect civilians and ensure humanitarian access.
UNMISS chief Nicholas Haysom warned in March 2025 that the country risked losing the “hard-won gains of the past seven years” if it returned to a state of war. The U.S. State Department called on Kiir to “reverse this action and prevent further escalation” following Machar’s detention.
On January 22, the UN’s Emergency Relief Coordinator approved a $10 million allocation from the Central Emergency Response Fund to address urgent needs triggered by the escalating violence in Jonglei State. However, humanitarian operations remain severely constrained due to flight restrictions and active combat zones that have cut off air access and halted medical evacuations.
Catholic bishops of the South Sudan Ecclesiastical Province condemned the renewed fighting on January 27, calling on leaders of the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity to halt hostilities and pursue dialogue. Human Rights Watch has called for due process for Machar and other detainees, documenting how they were held incommunicado for six months before being charged.
A Peace Agreement in Tatters
The 2018 R-ARCSS, which brought Kiir and Machar into a unity government after a five-year civil war, now appears to have lost nearly all credibility. Key provisions remain unimplemented seven years after its signing. Most critically, the Necessary Unified Forces — intended to integrate government and opposition troops into a single national army — have not been properly deployed or unified under a single command structure.
According to analysis by ACCORD, the peace agreement has become a tool for political elites to maintain fragile peace centered in Juba while legitimizing extended mandates without meaningful engagement with the broader population. The lack of mechanisms to penalize parties that obstruct implementation has made the costs of non-compliance lower than the costs of implementation.
“The country has been captured by a predatory elite that has institutionalized the systematic looting of the nation’s wealth for private gain,” the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan stated in a September 2025 report.
An Uncertain Path Forward
Analysts warn that without swift, robust mediation and the release of Machar and other political detainees, the December 2026 elections — if they proceed at all — would more likely exacerbate divisions and accelerate violence than restore stable governance.
The conflict has already prompted approximately 300,000 people to flee South Sudan in 2025 alone, according to UN estimates, with roughly half seeking refuge in neighboring Sudan, which itself remains mired in civil war. Inside South Sudan, witnesses describe indiscriminate use of barrel bombs and civilians fleeing into swamps to escape violence, with many settling under trees after their homes and health facilities were looted or burned.
As fighting intensifies and political space narrows, South Sudan confronts a grim reality: the institutional restraints that might have prevented a return to full-scale civil war have been systematically eroded. Whether the country’s leaders can step back from the brink remains an open question with devastating implications for millions of South Sudanese who have already endured more than a decade of conflict and humanitarian crisis.
“What we are witnessing in Jonglei is not an isolated security incident; it is a dangerous escalation which is manifesting in other parts of the country as well,” said Barney Afako, a member of the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, in a recent statement.
Reported by Kelvin Maina
