How climate change is costing Kenya 5% of its GDP every year

Climate change is not only an environmental concern, but also a significant economic issue that countries around the world are grappling with. Kenya, in particular, has been severely impacted, losing 5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) every year due to the effects of climate change.

From cyclical droughts to devastating floods, the country has experienced immense economic losses, affecting various sectors including agriculture, tourism, and infrastructure.

This article delves into the details of how climate change is costing Kenya billions of dollars annually and explores potential strategies to mitigate its impact.

According to Eng. Festus Ng’eno, the Principal Secretary for Environment and Climate Change in Kenya, the country is losing a staggering 5% of its GDP every year due to the impacts of climate change.

Ng’eno made this statement during the opening of a training workshop for Climate Change Units from various Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) held in Naivasha. He emphasized that the loss to Kenya’s GDP is a clear indication that climate change is manifesting itself in all sectors of the economy. The country is currently experiencing cyclic droughts and floods, which have a profound impact on its economic agenda.

The data provided by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) further supports the claim of climate change’s adverse effects on Kenya’s economy. The findings indicate that the global temperature is rising at an alarming rate, with the past decade being the warmest on record. In fact, seven of the warmest years since 2015 have been recorded, with the year 2023 surpassing all previous records in terms of heat.

Unfortunately, the trends observed in recent years continue to escalate. Ng’eno pointed out that February 2024 was the hottest month ever recorded, underscoring the urgent need for action. If left unchecked, the impacts of climate change will undoubtedly exacerbate the economic challenges faced by Kenya.

The consequences of climate change on Kenya’s economy are multifaceted. Firstly, the agricultural sector, which accounts for a significant portion of the country’s GDP and employs a vast number of Kenyans, is severely affected. Cyclic droughts and floods disrupt farming activities, leading to decreased agricultural productivity and increased food insecurity. As a result, farmers face reduced incomes, and the country becomes more reliant on costly food imports.

Additionally, climate change undermines infrastructure development and maintenance efforts in Kenya. The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as storms, floods, and landslides, damage critical infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and buildings. The costs of repair and reconstruction place a heavy burden on the government’s budget, diverting funds that could have been allocated to other essential sectors.

The Principal Secretary highlighted that the current situation is made even more complicated by the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report the previous year. This report revealed that there has been a continuous increase in the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. It also projected a future rise in global average temperatures, with disastrous consequences for the most vulnerable communities.

Eng. Ng’eno further emphasized that all sectors have been negatively affected by the repercussions of climate change, making it difficult for government departments to fulfill their responsibilities effectively. For instance, floods have disrupted schools and displaced students, while the destruction of roads and other critical infrastructure have made transportation impossible. Additionally, competition for limited resources like water and pasture during droughts has led to an increase in insecurity.

Furthermore, warmer temperatures and excessive rainfall have resulted in the spread of vector-borne diseases in areas where they were previously nonexistent. Rising lake levels have caused hotels to flood, and wildlife has suffered from mass deaths during periods of drought. The Principal Secretary explained that due to the broad range of impacts caused by climate change, the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry has adopted an inclusive approach to ensure that climate risks are effectively integrated into planning, strategies, policies, decisions, and implementation. He emphasized the importance of a basic understanding of climate change and its effects on different sectors in order to effectively address this global challenge.

The Climate Change Act, enacted in 2016, emphasizes the importance of all government entities in Kenya, including Ministries, Counties, Departments, and Agencies, having Climate Change Units (CCUs). These CCUs serve to integrate climate change considerations into various sectors of the government. Recently, Kenya submitted updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) with an increased ambition of a 32% emission reduction target, up from the previous 30%. In addition, Kenya has finalized its Long Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy, which outlines the country’s long term ambition to reach a net zero target by 2050.

Eng. Ng’eno, a representative involved in the drafting process, announced that the amended Climate Change Act of 2023 now incorporates carbon markets. This inclusion of carbon markets is seen as an innovative mechanism to enhance green climate finance. Kenya has also taken noteworthy initiatives to address the impacts of climate change. For instance, the country has embarked on a low carbon climate resilient development path, which includes the restoration of 5.1 million hectares of degraded landscapes under the AFR100 program. Additionally, Kenya aims to achieve Land Degradation Neutrality by 2030 under the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification.

During a training session for officers from various government departments, Eng. Ng’eno proudly stated that Kenya has committed to an ambitious goal of restoring and conserving 10.6 million hectares of degraded landscapes and ecosystems. This commitment is accompanied by a target to plant and nurture 15 billion trees by the year 2032. These efforts demonstrate Kenya’s determination to tackle climate change and its commitment to sustainable practices.

Climate change also impacts the tourism industry, which is a vital source of foreign exchange earnings for Kenya. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns can disrupt ecosystems, leading to loss of biodiversity and declining attractiveness for tourists. This, in turn, results in reduced revenue from tourism, affecting businesses and local communities dependent on the industry.

Furthermore, the health sector also bears the brunt of climate change. The changing climate provides conducive conditions for the spread of diseases, such as malaria, dengue fever, and cholera. Increased incidences of these diseases strain healthcare systems and require additional resources for prevention and treatment, further straining the national budget.