Incumbent Samia Suluhu Hassan is poised for a second term after the disqualification of her main rivals, in a poll monitored by few international journalists amid accreditation hurdles.
Tanzanians cast their votes on Wednesday in a general election that President Samia Suluhu Hassan is widely expected to win, following the exclusion of candidates from the country’s two main opposition parties, a move critics say has stifled democratic choice.
The poll, which will also elect members of the 400-seat parliament and a president for the semi-autonomous Zanzibar archipelago, represents a complex political moment for Hassan. She initially won international praise for rolling back the authoritarian tendencies of her predecessor but now faces accusations from rights groups of presiding over a slide back towards repression to secure her Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party’s grip on power.
Across towns and villages, Hassan’s campaign posters dominated the visual landscape in the run-up to the vote. She has traversed the nation of approximately 68 million, touting her record on infrastructure—highlighting the expansion of road and railway networks and increased power generation capacity. For a potential second term, she has pledged to prioritize the hiring of more teachers to address educational shortfalls.
Yet, the path to this election has been marred by controversy and the conspicuous absence of formidable challengers. The electoral commission disqualified the leading opposition party, CHADEMA, in April after it refused to sign an electoral code of conduct. Its firebrand leader, Tundu Lissu, who returned from exile after Hassan took office, is currently on trial for treason charges he and his supporters denounce as politically motivated.
In a further narrowing of the field, the commission also disqualified Luhaga Mpina, the candidate for the second-largest opposition party, ACT-Wazalendo, following an objection from the Attorney General. This has left Hassan competing primarily against candidates from minor parties, effectively ensuring a race with a predetermined outcome.
“The CCM is intent on maintaining its status as the last hegemonic liberation party in southern Africa and avoiding the recent electoral pressures faced by counterparts in South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe,” the U.S.-based crisis-monitoring group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) said in a recent analysis.
A Chilled Climate for Media and Dissent
The transparency of the electoral process has been called into question by significant hurdles faced by foreign journalists seeking to cover it. In a Reuters inquiry at the Tanzanian High Commission in Nairobi, officials directed media personnel to obtain prior authorization from the Ministry of Information in Dar es Salaam before any accreditation could be processed. This bureaucratic layer has acted as a formidable obstacle for international press, limiting on-the-ground independent reporting of the polls.
This lack of media access echoes broader concerns about space for dissent. Last week, Amnesty International accused the authorities of repressing dissent, allegations the government has denied.
The environment for government critics has grown increasingly tense. Rights campaigners and opposition figures have, over the past two years, reported a series of unexplained abductions and intimidations.
In one high-profile case earlier this month, the family of Wilbroad Mutagwaba, a former ambassador to Cuba who has become a fierce government critic, said he was taken from his home by unknown assailants. Police stated they were investigating the incident.
Hassan, one of only two female heads of state in Africa, has stated her government’s commitment to human rights. In response to the allegations, she ordered an investigation into reports of abductions last year. To date, no official findings from that probe have been made public.
The Shadow of Magufuli and the CCM Legacy
Hassan’s rise to power in 2021 following the sudden death of President John Magufuli was initially met with optimism. She swiftly moved to ease the intense repression of political opponents and the media censorship that had proliferated during Magufuli’s tenure, dubbed “The Bulldozer.” Her more conciliatory tone and promises of inclusive governance, encapsulated in her “Four Rs” policy—Reconciliation, Reforms, Resilience, and Rebuilding—were welcomed at home and abroad.
However, the run-up to this election has seen what analysts describe as a recalibration of that approach. The disqualification of key opponents and the legal troubles of figures like Lissu suggest a return to tactics long employed by the CCM to maintain its dominance.
The CCM, whose predecessor party led the struggle for independence for mainland Tanzania in the 1950s, has been the continent’s longest-running continuously ruling party, holding power since 1977. Its machinery is deeply embedded in the fabric of Tanzanian society, and its control over state institutions is extensive.
For many ordinary Tanzanians, the election offers a choice between the stability and incremental development promised by the CCM and a desire for more robust political competition that currently seems out of reach. At polling stations, voters expressed a mix of resignation and hope.
“We know the outcome, but I still have to perform my civic duty,” said one voter in Dar es Salaam who gave only his first name, Juma, citing caution. “We hope that the next term will bring more openness and opportunities for everyone, not just a few.”
The election commission has stated that results will be announced within three days of the polls closing. With the CCM’s organizational strength and a fractured opposition, a victory for President Samia Suluhu Hassan appears all but certain. The more significant question, lingering after the votes are counted, will be the long-term impact of this contested process on Tanzania’s fragile democratic institutions and on Hassan’s own legacy as a leader who promised a new chapter.
