Africa is experiencing a profound shift in its security landscape, characterized by increased military spending and a deterioration in peacefulness across the continent.
As revealed in the recent 2025 Global Peace Index (GPI), released on Wednesday, sub-Saharan Africa has emerged as the world’s most volatile region for armed conflict, with alarming implications for its stability and development.
The GPI, compiled by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), assesses 44 African countries, highlighting that over half have witnessed a decline in their militarization scores. This disturbing trend is primarily driven by soaring defense budgets, escalating cross-border conflicts, and a marked decrease in investments aimed at peacebuilding. With the international community’s attention diverted toward the ongoing crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, Africa’s conflicts are not only intensifying but also becoming increasingly overlooked.
“We’re seeing a shift away from US and French influence towards Russia and China in the economic sphere,” notes Thomas Morgan, the IEP’s chief research officer. This shift, he argues, has fundamentally altered the focus of military engagements from counterterrorism to regime security, invigorating authoritarian regimes and destabilizing the already fragile political landscape.
Violent Conflicts on the Rise
Regions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Burkina Faso are identified as the most likely to witness further escalation in violence in the upcoming year, becoming hotspots of potential conflict that could draw in international attention and resources largely devoted to other global crises.
Ethiopia, the eastern DRC, and South Sudan illustrate the precarious nature of peace in Africa, as they grapple with nearly all nine risk factors identified for conflict escalation. While government narratives often frame increasing military expenditures as necessary for defending sovereignty against insurgents, the reality on the ground tells a much more complex story, where state power is maintained at the expense of civil society and fundamental rights.
Military spending in sub-Saharan Africa has risen sharply, with over 23 countries increasing their military budgets as a share of GDP. Nations like Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania, and Burkina Faso have cited rising insurgencies and political instability as justifications for this militarization. However, this trend has serious repercussions, particularly in Burkina Faso and Mali, where military juntas have withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and increased ties with Russia and the newly established Alliance of Sahel States.
The consequences of these partnerships extend beyond defense; allegations of human rights violations, unchecked military expenditures, and the suppression of civil society have emerged prominently on the international stage.
Human Rights Concerns in the Name of Security
Rights groups have vocally condemned these governments for using security imperatives to consolidate power, limit freedoms, and perpetrate abuses, often hidden under the guise of counterinsurgency operations. The implications for ordinary citizens are profound; as states allocate more resources to military endeavors, the funding available for essential public services and peace initiatives diminishes.
Ironically, Africa’s military ambitions now stretch far beyond national borders. The GPI highlights the increasing trend of African nations deploying military forces internationally, with countries like Rwanda, Nigeria, Ghana, and Tanzania engaged in multiple overseas military operations. Such deployments, ranging from support for African Union efforts to United Nations peacekeeping missions, pose the question of whether peacekeeping is becoming merely a facade for geopolitical influence.
Rwanda, for instance, has positioned itself as a regional peacekeeper, deploying thousands of troops to Mozambique, the Central African Republic, and Benin. However, critics contend that its motivations are strategically driven rather than altruistic, blurring the lines between maintaining peace and projecting power. Lasisi Abara, a geopolitical researcher, underscored the risk posed by this intersection: “The line between peacekeeping and power projection is increasingly blurred across Africa’s security landscape.”
As violence erupts in places like the eastern DRC, now the fourth least peaceful country in the world, the GPI points to ongoing instability exacerbated by the M23 insurgency and complex foreign interferences, including alleged support from Rwanda. The failure of regional peace initiatives has compounded the crisis, leaving the affected populations vulnerable and in desperate need of sustainable solutions.
Sudan’s spiral into chaos further illustrates the consequences of unchecked military expenditure and political ambition. The 2023 conflict between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has not only claimed thousands of lives but has also disrupted humanitarian access and displaced over 10 million people, escalating a crisis that spills across borders into Chad, South Sudan, and Eritrea.
A Crisis of Peace and Governance
At the heart of Africa’s escalating conflicts lies a grim reality: peacebuilding is starved of resources. Despite soaring militarization, global investments in peacekeeping and peacebuilding initiatives accounted for a minuscule 0.52% of military expenditures in 2024. This figure represents a staggering 26% decline since 2008, revealing a disturbing trend that disproportionately affects Africa, historically the largest beneficiary of donor-driven peace initiatives.
The GPI warns that cuts to Official Development Assistance (ODA) targeted at youth employment, reconciliation programs, and local mediation efforts are accelerating the continent’s slide into fragility. Governments are now allocating up to 42% of their revenue to debt servicing, significantly curtailing their capacity to invest in peace-focused governance and economic resilience.
As highlighted by the GPI, the deterioration of global peacefulness has been particularly pronounced in the last two decades, with sub-Saharan Africa bearing a growing share of this decline. Morgan emphasizes that Africa faces not distinct drivers of conflict and peace but rather heightened pressures on its existing vulnerabilities, worsened by the interference of foreign powers.
In light of these challenges, there is an urgent need for a reinvestment strategy in what IEP terms “Positive Peace,” which encompasses a framework built on good governance, low corruption, access to information, and human capital development. Failure to act could see conflicts that began as localized disputes escalate into larger confrontations, drawing in external funding and armaments that further entrench violence across the region.
Bright Spots Amidst the Darkness
Despite the grim reality facing many parts of Africa, some positive developments have emerged. Improvements in telecommunications access and political transitions in countries like The Gambia offer glimmers of hope amidst the ongoing crises. The ability to communicate and mobilize, alongside increasing pressures for democratic governance, holds potential for non-violent resistance and societal change.
However, as highlighted by Morgan, the broader picture remains one of decline. “What began as tribal or ethnic disputes in the Sahel have been reframed in jihadist terms,” he notes. This rebranding attracts new funding and military resources, thereby magnifying the probability of long-term conflict escalation.
The road ahead seems challenging. As African nations grapple with growing violence and the implications of global military spending, the need for a concerted focus on peacebuilding and inclusive governance has never been more pressing. Abandoning the path of militarization in favor of sustainable development and stability is crucial to ensuring that Africa does not descend further into a cycle of violence, unrest, and humanitarian crises.
This report calls upon regional and international stakeholders to reassess priorities and allocate resources towards fostering a culture of peace that addresses the root causes of conflict while safeguarding the rights of citizens. Only through collaborative, well-resourced efforts can the continent hope to break free from the grip of violence and pave a path toward lasting peace and prosperity.
