Ethiopia’s recent moves in Somaliland have raised eyebrows and sparked tensions, as the country seems to be gaining ground in the region.
The decision to upgrade its consular office in Hargeisa to a fully-fledged embassy is seen as a bold move that could have significant implications.
This move comes at a time when Somaliland is celebrating 33 years since declaring independence from war-torn Somalia.
President Muse Bihi Abdi‘s announcement of the embassy upgrade signifies Ethiopia’s growing interest in the enclave, much to the dismay of Mogadishu, which still claims Somaliland as its sovereign territory.
The appointment of Delil Kedir Bushra as Ethiopia’s envoy to Somaliland further solidifies the country’s presence in the region.
Despite not being internationally recognized as an independent state, Somaliland has its own currency and operates as a self-declared republic.
Ethiopia’s actions in Somaliland are likely to face backlash from Somalia, which has warned against any interference in the region.
The diplomatic tensions between the two countries could escalate as Somalia seeks support from neighboring nations like Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan, all of which have their own grievances with Ethiopia.
The controversial dam project over the Nile River has also strained Ethiopia’s relations with its neighbors, adding another layer of complexity to the situation in Somaliland.
As Ethiopia’s intentions in the region come under scrutiny, the geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa may shift in unexpected ways.
In recent years, landlocked Ethiopia has been vocal about its desire to gain access to ports in the region to strengthen its global trade connections.
This ambition has been hindered since the independence of Eritrea in the early 1990s. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has made it a priority to regain access to the Red Sea for the benefit of Ethiopia’s trading interests.
The memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with Somaliland on January 1, 2024, was a significant step towards achieving this goal.
However, the agreement was met with controversy as it also allowed Ethiopia to establish a military base in Somaliland. Somalia objected to this move, citing violations of international law and encroachment on its territory.
Meanwhile, Somaliland defended the agreement, emphasizing the importance of upholding territorial integrity and promoting regional collaboration.
The escalating tensions resulted in both countries recalling their ambassadors, prompting the African Union to call for restraint.
While open hostilities may not be imminent, the situation threatens to divide the Horn of Africa region and undo progress made towards peace and stability.
After years of internal conflicts and ongoing wars within their borders, both Ethiopia and Somalia are not in a position to engage in military hostilities with each other.
Ethiopia’s military has been heavily involved in fighting against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and Amhara insurgents, depleting its resources and manpower.
With the country’s involvement in the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), there is a limited timeframe before peacekeepers withdraw from the region by the end of the year.
Somalia, on the other hand, is slowly stabilizing after decades of instability and has shown a willingness to seek diplomatic solutions to prevent further conflict.
However, the brewing tensions between the two nations could benefit extremist groups like Al-Shabaab, who may exploit the situation to sow chaos and create further instability in the region.
Observers warn that the consequences of escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, particularly regarding the issue of Somaliland, could have far-reaching and damaging effects on the entire region.
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