The recent departure of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) poses a significant threat to food security in the region.
This shift, termed “Sahelexit,” could lead to increased food prices and exacerbate hunger among millions already in crisis.
Key Takeaways
- Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have left ECOWAS, forming the Alliance of Sahel States.
- The exit threatens trade relations and food security in a region already facing high levels of malnutrition.
- The cost of a nutritious diet in these countries is significantly higher than the minimum wage.
Background of the ECOWAS Breakup
On January 29, 2025, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger officially announced their exit from ECOWAS, a decision driven by military leaders following a series of coups in each country.
This departure marks a critical juncture for the bloc, which has been a cornerstone of regional cooperation since its inception.
The three countries accounted for 16% of ECOWAS’s population and 7% of its economy. Their exit is not merely a political maneuver; it has profound implications for food security and economic stability in West Africa.
Impact on Food Security
The implications of this breakup are dire, particularly for food security. The region is already grappling with severe malnutrition, with nearly 17 million children under five acutely malnourished. The following factors contribute to the worsening situation:
- Increased Food Prices: The exit from ECOWAS means that these countries will face higher tariffs on imports from member states, leading to increased food prices. For instance, the average market price of rice in Niger surged by 38% during the sanctions period.
- Logistical Challenges: The departure disrupts established trade routes and increases transport times, further inflating food prices and limiting access to essential goods.
- Economic Isolation: As landlocked nations, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger rely heavily on ports in neighboring countries for trade. Their exit from ECOWAS limits their access to these vital trade routes, impacting exports and imports.
Trade Relations and Economic Consequences
The breakup will have significant repercussions for trade relations within the region:
- Customs Union Loss: By leaving ECOWAS, the three countries exit the customs union, which has facilitated tariff-free trade among member states. This will lead to higher costs for consumers and businesses alike.
- Increased Tariffs: The countries will revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) tariff rates, which are often higher than ECOWAS rates, making imports more expensive.
- Impact on Exports: Key exports, such as vegetables and livestock, are heavily reliant on trade with ECOWAS countries. The new tariffs could severely impact these markets.
Future Scenarios
As ECOWAS approaches its 50th anniversary, the future remains uncertain. Possible scenarios include:
- Bilateral Agreements: The Alliance of Sahel States may seek to negotiate bilateral trade agreements with major partners, undermining regional integration efforts.
- Continued Isolation: If the three countries maintain their stance, they risk further economic isolation, which could exacerbate food insecurity and conflict in the region.
- Negotiation for Cooperation: There may be attempts to negotiate terms for continued cooperation, particularly regarding trade and security, but these efforts will require consensus among all ECOWAS members.
Conclusion
The breakup of ECOWAS by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger is a pivotal moment for West Africa, with far-reaching implications for food security and economic stability.
As the region grapples with these challenges, the international community must pay close attention to the evolving dynamics and support efforts to mitigate the impact on vulnerable populations.