Flight tracking data reveals suspected weapons deliveries through Ethiopian airbase as regional power struggle between Saudi Arabia and UAE intensifies across Horn of Africa.
A massive cargo plane with a history of delivering weapons to conflict zones has made repeated flights in recent days linking military installations in Abu Dhabi, Israel, Bahrain and Ethiopia, Middle East Eye reports.
The flights come as a regional power struggle between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia intensifies across Yemen and the Horn of Africa, reshaping the geopolitical landscape and threatening to escalate the devastating war in Sudan that has created what the United Nations calls the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.
The cargo aircraft in question, an Antonov An-124 operated by UAE-based Maximus Air and bearing tail number UR-ZYD, represents one of the world’s largest military transport planes. According to the airline’s website, the behemoth can carry 21 Toyota Land Cruisers or four Mi-17 helicopters in a single flight.
Flight records show the plane made three round trips between Abu Dhabi and Harar Meda airport, the Ethiopian Air Force’s main base, between Jan. 3 and Jan. 17. Before those flights, the same aircraft made three trips between military airbases in Bahrain and what appears to be an Israeli Air Force installation in the Negev desert.
While the purpose of the flights remains unclear, they unfold against a backdrop of shifting alliances and military posturing that has thrown the UAE onto the defensive in multiple arenas.
Saudi-UAE rivalry reshapes region
Saudi Arabia recently launched military operations to push the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council from the Yemeni port city of Aden, forcing the Emirates to withdraw from a strategic base in Bosaso on Somalia’s coast. Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, where the UAE maintains another military installation and controls the port of Berbera, has further destabilized the regional order.
The competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has increasingly focused on Sudan, where a brutal civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has raged since April 2023. Saudi Arabia, alongside Egypt and Turkey, has ramped up military support for the SAF in what analysts describe as a direct counter to the UAE’s long-standing backing of the RSF.
“Since the onset of the war in Sudan, the UAE has acted with greater speed, audacity and financial commitment than any other foreign interferer,” said Jalel Harchaoui, an analyst specializing in North Africa and political economy. But Saudi Arabia’s recent regional victories “have strengthened Riyadh’s credibility,” he added, and the kingdom is now “spending aggressively to alter the trajectory of the Sudan war.”
Reuters reported recently that Pakistani officials are in advanced negotiations on a $1.5 billion defense package for Sudan’s military that would include JF-17 Block III fighters, K-8 attack aircraft and more than 200 drones.
Ethiopia emerges as key UAE ally
The uncertainty surrounding UAE military bases in Somalia has reportedly led to a redeployment of Emirati personnel to Ethiopia, which multiple sources say has become central to Abu Dhabi’s regional strategy.
A former Ethiopian government adviser who worked in Addis Ababa for over a decade told Middle East Eye that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed “certainly seems to see the future as Ethiopia aligning itself firmly with the UAE alliance rather than other options.”
The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said some within Ethiopia’s foreign ministry believe “the UAE has been calling the shots for Ethiopia in regard to the Sudan government, RSF and Eritrea over Assab for the last two years.” The adviser claimed Abiy “very nearly invaded” the Eritrean port of Assab last year “at the behest of Abu Dhabi.”
Harchaoui said that while several regional actors may adjust their positions in response to Saudi Arabia’s assertiveness, “Addis Ababa will stick with the UAE. The Emiratis are therefore focusing military operations on Ethiopian territory, preparing a major offensive as Saudi actions have disrupted other staging areas.”
Aircraft’s controversial history
The Antonov making the recent flights is no stranger to controversy. A 2021 United Nations panel investigating sanctions violations in Libya accused Maximus Air of breaching a UN resolution prohibiting weapons supplies to parties in that conflict.
The panel identified 12 suspicious flights by UR-ZYD between Assab in Eritrea and Mersa Matruh in Egypt, describing them as part of a covert UAE operation to arm General Khalifa Haftar’s forces in eastern Libya. Those forces have since supported the RSF in Sudan’s civil war.
Lana Nusseibeh, then the UAE’s ambassador to the United Nations, called the allegations “false” and said the government denied “them in their entirety.”
The UN report estimated each flight could deliver up to 18 military vehicles and identified Mohammed bin Zayed, now the UAE president, as the beneficial owner of the aircraft when he served as Abu Dhabi’s crown prince.
Open-source flight monitoring has previously linked the same plane to weapons deliveries. In September 2023, researchers documented 16 flights over five months between Abu Dhabi and N’Djamena in Chad. The aircraft was also connected to UAE weapons supplies to Ethiopia during the Tigray war in 2021.
Recent flight pattern raises alarms
The Jan. 3 flight from Abu Dhabi International Airport to Harar Meda landed at 9:12 a.m. local time and departed 93 minutes later. Subsequent trips on Jan. 12 and Jan. 15 originated from Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhafra military base, with similarly brief turnarounds in Ethiopia.
Days before the first Ethiopia flight, UR-ZYD made three round trips between Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain and what flight-tracking data suggests was Israel’s Ovda base in the southern Negev desert on Dec. 28, 29 and 31.
Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab, which monitors Sudan’s war, called the pattern alarming. “Evidence that an An-124, given the significant cargo capacity of this particular airframe, has been making repeated sorties between Abu Dhabi and this airfield near an area seeing increased uptick in RSF presence and operations should be of global concern,” he told Middle East Eye.
Raymond said if the flights prove connected to UAE support for the RSF, “it is incumbent on Ethiopia to follow the lead of its neighbors and block the access of UAE and its proxies to Ethiopian airspace immediately.”
A Sudanese intelligence source told Middle East Eye that the RSF recently purchased at least six fighter jets, including Sukhoi Su-24s and MiG-25s, typically sourced from Serbia. The source said the aircraft are disassembled and transported on cargo planes from the UAE to Ethiopia or to al-Kufra, an airbase in eastern Libya controlled by Haftar’s forces.
Libya connection under pressure
Middle East Eye has tracked numerous UAE-linked cargo flights into al-Kufra, which has served as a key supply point for the RSF. But that route now faces disruption as Saudi Arabia pressures Saddam Haftar, the general’s son, to stop facilitating UAE support for the paramilitary force.
On Monday, al-Kufra announced a month-long “temporary closure” for runway repairs, though the runway was renovated as recently as February 2024. The closure is widely seen as a stalling tactic while the Haftar family weighs its options between UAE and Saudi patronage.
Egypt, which backs Sudan’s military, has begun striking RSF supply convoys near its border.
“The Horn of Africa is now at the mercy of what happens in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi,” said Kholood Khair, a Sudanese policy analyst. “We are seeing the entrenchment of this Gulf imperium we’ve seen for the last five years. A lot of countries in the area are now making decisions based on which country in the Gulf they side with.”
Maximus Air’s dual role
Abu Dhabi Aviation, Maximus Air’s parent company, is majority owned by ADQ, an investment fund chaired by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s national security adviser. According to the company’s recent reports, Maximus Air’s clients include “the GHQ Armed Forces, Crown Prince Court, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and several other government entities.”
Yet the airline also promotes its humanitarian work. Annual reports from 2022 and 2023 emphasized the company’s “humanitarian mission” supporting “the UAE’s humanitarian efforts for refugees and displaced people,” noting close collaboration with the UAE Red Crescent Authority.
In 2023, the airline transported two MI-17 helicopters from China to Uganda for deployment in a UN peacekeeping mission between Sudan and South Sudan.
Last month, UR-ZYD was part of a cargo plane entourage accompanying Mohammed bin Zayed on an official visit to Pakistan. Regional media reported the UAE president also participated in the country’s annual hunting season for the houbara bustard, a prized bird whose meat is valued in Arab royal circles for its reputed aphrodisiacal properties.
Middle East Eye contacted the UAE’s foreign ministry, Ethiopia’s foreign ministry, the Rapid Support Forces and Maximus Air for comment. None responded. The UAE has previously denied supporting the RSF, which has been widely accused of genocide in Darfur in western Sudan.
