The price of ugali, a staple food in Kenya, is set to increase significantly due to a looming maize shortage.
Millers have reported that many farmers sold their maize to exporters for higher prices, leading to a scarcity in the local market.
This situation threatens to make ugali unaffordable for many households.
Key Takeaways
- Maize prices are expected to rise due to a shortage in supply.
- Many farmers sold their maize to exporters, leading to local scarcity.
- Millers are suspending operations due to insufficient maize stocks.
- The government is considering import duty waivers to alleviate the crisis.
Maize Shortage and Its Causes
The North Rift region of Kenya is facing a severe maize shortage, which has prompted millers to warn of skyrocketing flour prices. The situation has arisen from several factors:
- High Demand for Exports: Farmers have opted to sell their maize to dealers exporting to Uganda and South Sudan, where prices are significantly higher.
- Crop Failures in Neighboring Countries: Uganda experienced crop failures due to adverse weather, increasing demand for Kenyan maize.
- Competition for Limited Stocks: There is fierce competition between millers and animal feed manufacturers for the dwindling maize supply.
Current Market Prices
- A 90-kilogram bag of maize is currently priced at:
- Kenya: Sh4,200
- Uganda: Sh4,600
- South Sudan: Sh5,200
This price disparity has incentivized farmers to sell their produce abroad, exacerbating the local shortage.
Impact on Millers and Consumers
Due to the maize shortage, many milling operations have been scaled back or suspended entirely. Reports indicate that:
- At least 10 milling plants have reduced their workforce or sent employees on leave.
- The price of a two-kilogram packet of flour (unga) has risen from Sh120 to over Sh150.
- Consumers are feeling the pinch as the cost of this staple food continues to rise.
Government Response
In response to the crisis, the Ministry of Agriculture has acknowledged the impending shortage and is considering measures to mitigate the impact on consumers:
- A proposed 50% duty waiver for the importation of 5.5 million bags of yellow maize is under discussion.
- The government aims to support vetted animal feed millers to ensure a steady supply of maize.
Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has expressed concern over the competition for maize between different sectors, emphasizing the need for intervention to protect consumers from rising prices.
Future Projections
Experts are skeptical about the government’s projections of maize production, which estimated a yield of 75 million bags last season. Many believe the actual figures are much lower due to:
- Use of substandard fertilizers and seeds.
- Land fragmentation leading to reduced yields.
- Adverse weather conditions affecting harvests.
The Ministry of Agriculture’s projections indicate that the country produced only 47.6 million bags in the 2023 season, highlighting a significant shortfall against consumption needs.
As the situation develops, the rising cost of ugali poses a serious challenge for many Kenyan households, who rely on this staple for their daily sustenance.
Without effective intervention, the crisis could deepen, making it increasingly difficult for families to afford basic food items.
