How Kenya’s president Ruto underestimated the GNZ movement

Kenya’s President William Ruto seemed to be riding high on a wave of international accolades earlier this year, as he was honored with a state visit to the United States by President Joe Biden. However, his popularity at home took a sharp nosedive in July when the GNZ movement, a grassroots uprising of the young people in the East African nation, erupted in protests across the country.

Facing mounting pressure from the GNZ movement, Ruto made the drastic decision to dismiss his entire cabinet and backtrack on proposed tax increases. Yet, despite these concessions, he underestimated the power and persistence of the GNZ movement, leading to chaos when protesters stormed the parliament building.

Ruto’s rapid fall from grace highlights the challenges of balancing international obligations with domestic political realities. As Kenya struggles with a staggering national debt, corruption and a lack of formal employment opportunities for its citizens, Ruto’s populist approach to politics initially garnered him widespread support among the country’s working class.

Although Ruto’s rise to power in 2022 was fueled by his appeal to the nation’s “hustlers,” his failure to address the underlying economic issues facing Kenya has now come back to haunt him. While he may have successfully leveraged his mass appeal to win the presidency against his rival Raila Odinga without the endorsement of the incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta, Ruto’s disregard for the grievances of the GNZ movement has exposed his vulnerability as a leader.

By relying on an increasingly urban and well-informed electorate, Ruto tapped into a modern idea: that of a social contract between voters and a government promising to deliver services and opportunity. However, in doing so, he has inadvertently unleashed a force that he can no longer control. The protests that have erupted as a result of this leaderless and hydra-headed movement have no clear leader to negotiate with or underlying ethnic rivalries to exploit.

Although Ruto may have had good intentions in trying to address the needs of the people, he has inherited a financial mess left behind by the Kenyatta government. During his time as deputy president in the previous administration, Kenyatta’s government borrowed and spent exorbitant amounts of money on wasteful projects, such as the incomplete Chinese-built railway, which have only served to increase Kenya’s debt without providing any economic benefits.

Kenyatta’s government added a staggering $51 billion to the existing $22 billion debt pile, leading to the unsustainable situation where 38 percent of revenue is now being used to service these debts. Ruto’s advisers have even likened Kenyatta’s government’s actions to recklessly swiping the national credit card.

As the GNZ movement gains momentum in demanding accountability for government resources, Ruto finds himself at a crossroads. Despite the tragic deaths of some GNZ protesters, he must now address their concerns and find a way to navigate the ongoing financial challenges facing Kenya’s government.

Ruto’s strategic financial maneuvers have managed to steer clear of a default situation, but at a cost to his own support base of hustlers. Implementing an IMF-endorsed program to boost tax revenue to 25 percent of GDP from the current 15 percent has proven to be challenging, especially amidst declining service quality and a struggling economy. The task becomes even more daunting considering the low number of taxpayers in the formal sector and the difficulties in extracting taxes from the informal sector. The pressure from the GNZ to step down due to the perceived failures of his administration adds another layer of complexity to Ruto’s already precarious situation.

Attempting to extract an additional $2.3 billion from a population with an average income of $2,000 presents significant challenges. The underlying motive of satisfying international bondholders and creditors further complicates the situation, as seen in the backlash and protests that have erupted, resulting in tragic casualties. The message on one protest placard sums up the sentiment of the people, reflecting resistance against being at the mercy of foreign financial forces.

Ruto’s tax-raising endeavors have sparked a social movement that serves as a cautionary tale for other financially strapped governments, including Nigeria. The ongoing pressure from the GNZ movement underscores the deep-rooted dissatisfaction and demands for more accountability from Ruto’s administration. As the situation unfolds, it becomes clear that the dynamics at play involve more than just a struggle between struggling citizens and unyielding debt collectors – it is a multifaceted battle that continues to unfold, with uncertain outcomes on the horizon.

Many protesters in Kenya are expressing their frustration with politicians who are seen as responsible for accumulating debts and taking a share of the profits. The country’s elites are often seen flaunting their wealth on social media, showcasing extravagant lifestyles with luxury travel, designer clothing, and private helicopters. Political cartoonist Patrick Gathara points out this behavior and criticizes politicians for their lavish displays.

Despite attempts to quell protests with violence and intimidation, populist leader Ruto has had to back down and is now promising a more accountable and efficient political class. If Ruto is able to follow through on his pledge to reduce corruption and improve performance, he may be able to restore his reputation both domestically and internationally. The GNZ movement in Kenya has already made significant progress, accomplishing feats that were previously thought unattainable by previous generations.

In many ways, Ruto’s political career embodies the complex and often tumultuous nature of Kenyan politics. Despite his past controversies and the challenges he faces in reconciling the demands of the international community with those of his own people, Ruto’s ability to connect with Kenya’s marginalized populations cannot be overlooked.

As Ruto navigates the fallout from the GNZ movement and works to rebuild his political standing, the lessons learned from his missteps serve as a cautionary tale for leaders around the world. The events of recent months have demonstrated that underestimating the power of grassroots movements can have far-reaching consequences, even for those who once seemed untouchable on the global stage.

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