For decades, Raila Odinga has been Kenya’s most persistent presidential contender, yet the country’s top job has remained frustratingly out of reach. Now, key allies are breaking their silence about why.
Minority Leader Junet Mohamed claims the opposition stalwart’s repeated electoral defeats were not simply the will of voters, but the calculated outcome of entrenched power brokers who refused to allow him into State House.
“The people who normally make people president in Kenya did not want to make Raila president,” Junet told Citizen TV‘s JKL show, carefully avoiding naming specific individuals. “That’s what I believe.”
The assertion raises uncomfortable questions about Kenya’s democratic process and whether elections truly determine leadership, or merely ratify decisions made behind closed doors by the country’s political elite.
1. Resistance from traditional kingmakers
According to Junet, influential figures who have historically determined presidential outcomes actively worked against Raila’s candidacy. These power brokers, whose identities he declined to reveal, reportedly found Raila’s leadership style incompatible with their interests despite publicly supporting his campaigns.
The Suna East MP suggested this elite resistance manifested throughout multiple election cycles, creating systemic barriers that transcended individual contests. Persistent calls to open electoral servers after disputed results, he argued, reflected widespread suspicion that the system was fundamentally rigged against the ODM leader.
2. Insufficient mobilization in Mt. Kenya region
Junet singled out Kenya’s vote-rich Mt. Kenya region as a critical failure point in Raila’s 2022 presidential bid. Despite backing from former President Uhuru Kenyatta, a son of the region, voter turnout there remained disappointingly low for the Azimio coalition.
“Even a marginal increase in support from that region would have handed Raila victory,” Junet contended, suggesting that demographic arithmetic was tilted against the opposition leader by regional apathy.
The lawmaker accused Kenyatta of campaigning “from his seat of power, State House” rather than conducting aggressive grassroots mobilization. “His friend, the former president, did not take him to that area to tell the people that this is a good man,” Junet said.
3. Elite endorsements without ground game
While Raila secured high-profile support from establishment figures including Kenyatta, these endorsements failed to translate into coordinated field operations. Junet criticized what he characterized as a disconnect between elite-level political maneuvering and the hard work of voter persuasion at the grassroots.
The absence of intensive door-to-door campaigns and community-level organizing in crucial battleground areas left Raila vulnerable, particularly in regions where his political brand had historically struggled.
4. Voter failure to recognize Raila’s credentials
Junet placed partial responsibility on Kenyan voters themselves, arguing that Raila’s extensive public service record and pivotal role in the country’s democratic reforms should have delivered a decisive victory rather than perpetually contested outcomes.
“His track record should have been enough,” the minority leader suggested, expressing frustration that electoral margins remained razor-thin despite what he views as Raila’s superior qualifications.
5. Systemic structural barriers
Beyond individual actors, Junet’s comments point to deeper institutional resistance within Kenya’s political system. The repeated nature of Raila’s defeats—across different opponents, electoral frameworks, and political coalitions—suggests patterns that transcend any single election cycle.
Questions about electoral integrity, from voter register manipulation to results transmission irregularities, have haunted multiple Raila campaigns. While courts have consistently upheld his opponents’ victories, suspicion persists among his supporters that procedural obstacles were deliberately constructed to block his path.
6. Internal party challenges
Despite dismissing rumors of cracks within ODM and denying allegations of misusing party agents’ funds in 2022, Junet’s own need to address such claims highlights organizational vulnerabilities that may have hampered Raila’s campaigns.
The minority leader insisted that divergent views among party members reflected healthy internal democracy rather than destructive factionalism, but acknowledged that presenting a unified front has been an ongoing challenge.
As Kenya’s political landscape continues evolving, Junet’s analysis offers a window into how Raila’s closest allies interpret his electoral history—not as democratic verdicts rendered by voters, but as outcomes engineered by shadowy forces determined to keep him from power.
Whether this narrative reflects reality or provides convenient cover for campaign failures remains a matter of intense debate. What’s undeniable is that Raila Odinga’s quest for the presidency stands as one of the most consequential unfulfilled political ambitions in modern African history.
