In the bustling streets of Kampala, Robert Kyagulanyi, better known as Bobi Wine, campaigns under heavy guard, his red beret and bulletproof vest a stark symbol of the perils facing Uganda’s opposition.
The 43-year-old former pop star, who rose from the slums of Kamwokya to become the country’s most prominent challenger, is once again taking on President Yoweri Museveni in the presidential election set for Thursday 15 January 2026.
But with just days to go, many observers believe Bobi Wine is heading for another defeat against the 81-year-old incumbent who has ruled Uganda since 1986.
A veteran leader seeks seventh term
Museveni, who came to power after a bush war, is seeking a seventh term in the 15 January vote, widely expected to extend his four-decade grip on power. A recent national opinion poll gave the veteran leader a commanding lead, far ahead of his rivals.
The president’s supporters point to relative stability and economic growth under his rule, even as critics highlight growing authoritarianism, corruption allegations and youth unemployment in a country where more than 70 percent of the population is under 30.
Museveni campaigns with the confidence of an entrenched leader, drawing large crowds in yellow National Resistance Movement (NRM) colours. At recent rallies in greater Kampala, he has emphasised development achievements and warned against enemies of progress promoting unrest.
Bobi Wine’s appeal to the youth
Bobi Wine’s appeal lies precisely in that demographic. The singer of hits like Tuliyambala Engule (We Shall Wear the Crown) has mobilised young Ugandans frustrated with Museveni’s long tenure. His 2021 challenge energised the opposition, winning him around 35 percent of the vote officially, though he rejected the results amid reports of ballot stuffing and violence that left dozens dead.
This time, the Ghetto President has secured endorsements from veteran opposition figures like four-time challenger Kizza Besigye, consolidating anti-Museveni forces. His campaign promises include probing oil deals, fighting corruption and delivering change for the youth.
Yet structural obstacles remain formidable. Analysts describe Uganda’s police as a central pillar of the ruling party, with political policing intensifying ahead of the vote. Opposition rallies have faced restrictions, while NRM events proceed smoothly. Dozens of Bobi Wine supporters have reportedly been arrested in recent months, with reports of violence including attacks during campaigning in northern Uganda.
Campaign marred by violence and intimidation
The campaign has been marked by violence and accusations of intimidation. Bobi Wine, leader of the National Unity Platform (NUP), has repeatedly accused security forces of targeting his supporters. He has appeared in protective gear after past attacks that left him injured.
International observers, including from the African Union and others, are monitoring this election, but their influence is limited amid a pervasive climate of fear. Rights groups have cited the use of tear gas, pepper spray, beatings and arbitrary arrests against the opposition.
The Electoral Commission, appointed by the president, has also drawn criticism for perceived bias.
Succession questions loom large
Adding to the intrigue are succession questions. Museveni’s son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has been prominently positioned in recent years, though he is not on the ballot. A Museveni victory would likely deepen debates over dynastic ambitions in a country that removed presidential age limits in 2017 to allow the incumbent to run indefinitely.
In Kampala, the urban stronghold where Bobi Wine enjoys strong support, the final days have seen intense showdown rallies. But rural areas, where Museveni’s patronage networks run deep, remain crucial.
Pressure for change persists
Even if Museveni wins, pressure to address youth economic woes and succession issues will define his next term, analysts suggest.
As Ugandans prepare to vote — with polling stations opening across the country on Thursday 15 January — the question lingers: can Bobi Wine overcome the odds, or will Museveni’s machine deliver another victory?
Many voters express quiet resignation. We want change, but the system is too strong, said one young supporter at a Bobi Wine event, echoing a sentiment heard across the capital.
For Bobi Wine, defeat would not necessarily end his challenge. In 2021, he transformed electoral loss into sustained opposition momentum. But another disputed result risks further eroding faith in Uganda’s democracy, analysts warn.
With the ballot days away, the outcome appears foregone to many. Yet in a nation weary of one-man rule, Bobi Wine’s defiant campaign has ensured the question of change remains alive — even if victory seems, once again, elusive.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect Who Owns Africa’s editorial policy.
