El Fasher’s fall to RSF paramilitaries reshapes Sudan’s future

The fall of El Fasher to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is more than a military defeat; it is an event that reshapes Sudan’s future, cementing a de facto partition of the country and handing the RSF a strategic and symbolic victory that alters the trajectory of the civil war.

For nearly a year, this besieged city stood as the final major stronghold of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in the Darfur region, a fragile bastion against the RSF’s advance. Its capture on October 26 has not only redrawn the map of Sudan but has also plunged the nation into a deeper humanitarian abyss and set the stage for a new, more fragmented phase of the conflict.

The seizure of North Darfur’s capital effectively places the entire Darfur region – an area comprising roughly one-third of Sudan – under the command of RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti. This consolidation of power in the west creates a stark territorial divide, with the SAF remaining entrenched in the east, centered on Port Sudan, and the RSF now governing a vast, resource-rich territory bordering four nations.

“The fall of El Fasher is both symbolic and strategic, a turning point in a war that has displaced more than 10 million people and left Sudan’s statehood hanging by a thread,” said Hisham Madani, a political analyst and founder of the humanitarian group Sudanese Civil Movement. “It represents the attempted erasure of a nation’s people and identity while the international community stands by.”

A City’s Defiance Ends in Carnage

Long a humanitarian and commercial hub, El Fasher had endured a brutal months-long siege, cut off from essential supplies and subjected to indiscriminate shelling. Its defence was a patchwork of SAF troops, local self-defence groups, and remnants of rebel factions, all clinging to a shrinking perimeter.

When the city finally fell, the aftermath was swift and brutal. Thousands are feared dead. Researchers at Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab have cited satellite and field evidence of mass killings at RSF-controlled sites, including the former Children’s Hospital and the Saudi Hospital.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said it was “appalled and deeply shocked” by evidence that 460 patients and relatives were killed at the Saudi Maternity Hospital, one of the few still operating. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that the agency had verified 285 attacks on health facilities since the war began, resulting in at least 1,200 deaths.

Local sources indicate that the SAF had quietly negotiated a withdrawal of most of its troops to avert a bloodbath. However, chaos erupted as the RSF overran the army’s last stronghold, the 6th Infantry Division headquarters, with reports of remaining soldiers being executed as they fled.

The New Map of Sudan

Strategically, control of El Fasher gives the RSF dominance over key supply routes and enhances its influence across Darfur and into neighbouring Kordofan.

“Controlling Darfur will increase the RSF’s standing at any future negotiations,” said Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “Importantly, the RSF now fully controls Darfur’s borders with four neighbouring states, which will enhance its ability to supply itself and bring in fresh recruits for sustaining the war.”

The victory also carries immense political weight. As the former capital of Darfur, El Fasher’s capture undermines the authority of SAF leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and bolsters Hemeti’s claim to legitimacy.

“The war in Sudan today is less about controlling territory and more about asserting legitimacy,” said regional analyst Habto Mehari. “Holding El Fasher strengthens Hemeti’s political standing and undermines General al-Burhan’s already fragile authority.”

According to Connor Trumpold, East and Horn of Africa analyst at Control Risks, the RSF’s victory will likely strain the alliance between the SAF and its Darfuri allies, amid growing perceptions that the army “did not do enough to defend the city”.

The Inevitability of Partition?

Displaced Sudanese queue for food aid at a camp in the eastern city of Gedaref on September 23, 2024. Ebrahim Hamid/AFP via Getty Images

The fall of El Fasher has made a previously informal division a stark reality: an RSF-ruled west and an SAF-held east. Analysts warn this could harden into a permanent partition.

Mehari says the full RSF control of the city represents a de facto division of power, creating semi-autonomous zones under each faction. “Sudan is highly unlikely to return to a centralised state; it’s headed down the fragmented paths of Libya and Yemen, towards a prolonged stalemate,” he notes.

The critical question now is whether the RSF will move to formalise its rule. “Will they provide security to citizens under their control? Collect taxes? Administer laws?” asked Hudson. “If they did, that would enhance their argument that the country is formally divided.”

Trumpold warns that in the coming weeks, “we’ll likely see this west-east split formalised,” pointing to the parallel government, known as Tasis, that the RSF has already established. With Darfur secured, RSF units are now free to redeploy to other fronts, likely aiming to crush remaining resistance in Darfur and push towards strategic objectives in Kordofan, such as the city of El Obeid.

A Proxy War Amid Global Apathy

Underpinning Sudan’s fragmentation is a complex web of foreign involvement that has transformed an internal power struggle into a regional proxy conflict.

The United Arab Emirates has been repeatedly accused by the UN and Western officials of supplying the RSF with weapons and funding through Chad and Libya, allegations Abu Dhabi denies. Analysts suggest the UAE’s interest lies in securing Sudan’s lucrative gold trade and influence over the Red Sea.

Conversely, Egypt has quietly backed the Sudanese army, fearing instability on its southern border and potential impacts on its share of Nile waters. The involvement of other actors, including reported shipments of Iranian drones to the army, signals Tehran’s return to the Red Sea arena, adding another layer of geopolitical tension.

Amid these power plays, international bodies like the UN and African Union face fierce criticism for their perceived inaction.

“This is not a civil war. It is a foreign-sponsored campaign to fragment the country and erase its sovereignty,” said Madani. “History will remember those who could have called an emergency meeting but didn’t, those who could have stopped the weapons but chose profit.”

As the world’s attention wavers, the fall of El Fasher stands as a grim milestone. It is not merely the capture of a city but the likely genesis of a new, fractured Sudan, where two rival armies rule over a divided land and millions of civilians are left to face the consequences.