On January 26, 2026, Uganda marked a pivotal milestone in its modern history: 40 years since the National Resistance Army captured power in 1986, ending decades of political turbulence and ushering in an era that would fundamentally reshape the East African nation.
Yet as President Yoweri Museveni, now 81, celebrates this liberation anniversary following his recent election victory for a seventh term, Uganda finds itself at a crossroads. The guerrilla fighter who once promised democratic transformation has become Africa’s third-longest-serving leader, presiding over a country where the promise of liberation increasingly collides with accusations of authoritarianism.
The Liberation That Changed Everything
The story begins on February 6, 1981, when Museveni launched a guerrilla war with just 27 armed fighters following disputed elections that returned Milton Obote to power. The National Resistance Army emerged from the merger of Museveni’s Popular Resistance Army and former President Yusuf Lule’s Uganda Freedom Fighters, creating the military wing of what would become the National Resistance Movement.
The Luwero Triangle, a region north of Kampala, became the epicenter of a brutal five-year conflict. Government forces under Obote and later General Tito Okello waged a scorched-earth campaign that left hundreds of thousands dead, while the NRA steadily gained ground through disciplined guerrilla tactics and growing popular support, particularly among the Baganda people.
By January 26, 1986, when NRA forces marched into Kampala, the movement had swelled to approximately 16,000 combatants. Museveni declared himself president, promising fundamental change. The victory ended Uganda’s cycle of coups and military dictatorships that had plagued the nation since independence in 1962, including Idi Amin’s brutal eight-year reign from 1971 to 1979.
“The problem of Africa in general and Uganda in particular is not the people but leaders who want to overstay in power,” Museveni declared in his 1986 inaugural address, words that would later haunt his legacy.
From Revolutionary to Ruler
The early years of NRM rule brought genuine reforms. Museveni’s government introduced a grassroots participatory system called resistance councils, launched a consultative constitution-making process that culminated in the 1995 constitution, and embraced economic liberalization backed by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
Uganda’s economy, which had collapsed during the Amin years and subsequent instability, achieved remarkable growth rates averaging 6.7 percent annually from 1990 to 2015. The agricultural sector’s share of GDP declined from 56 percent in 1990 to 24 percent by 2015, while services expanded from 32 percent to 55 percent, signaling economic transformation.
Life expectancy climbed dramatically from 43 years in 1986 to 68 years by 2024. Uganda’s response to HIV/AIDS became a model for the continent. Infrastructure expanded, with the tarmac road network growing sixfold. The country achieved political stability that attracted foreign investment and made it a haven for refugees fleeing violence elsewhere in the region.
These achievements earned Museveni praise from Western donors, who in the 1990s hailed him as part of a new generation of African leaders. Uganda became the poster child for structural adjustment programs, with the World Bank and IMF touting it as a success story.
The Democratic Reversal
Yet the liberation ideals gradually eroded. The 1995 constitution established term limits and an age cap of 75 for presidential candidates. But as Museveni approached these boundaries, Parliament amended the constitution twice: removing term limits in 2005 and scrapping the age cap in 2017, both changes pushed through a legislature dominated by the NRM.
These constitutional maneuvers sparked protests and heavy police crackdowns. Opinion polls have consistently shown that most Ugandans support restoring term and age limits, with a recent national survey revealing 71 percent favor such restrictions. Yet Museveni has systematically dismantled the checks designed to prevent indefinite rule.
The 2021 election marked a turning point. Museveni faced Robert Kyagulanyi, better known as Bobi Wine, a 43-year-old pop star-turned-politician whose National Unity Platform galvanized youth frustration. The campaign was marred by violence, with over 100 people killed in protests following Wine’s arrest in November 2020. Human rights groups estimated over 1,000 people were detained around the elections, and abductions of opposition supporters reportedly continued.
The 2026 Election: A Contested Victory
The January 15, 2026 election, held just 11 days before the 40th liberation anniversary, followed a familiar script. On January 13, the Uganda Communications Commission suspended mobile internet services, citing misinformation and electoral fraud concerns. This blackout, reminiscent of the 2021 shutdown, drew international criticism and limited scrutiny of voting day events.
Biometric voter verification machines malfunctioned across the country, particularly in opposition strongholds in central Uganda. Even Museveni’s own fingerprints failed to authenticate at his polling station in Rwakitura, forcing authorities to revert to manual voting. Opposition candidates, including Wine, alleged the technical failures were deliberate manipulation to disenfranchise voters.
Electoral Commission chairperson Simon Byabakama later acknowledged receiving warnings from senior government figures not to declare certain candidates as winners, though he declined to identify them. The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights accused the government of using military regulations and lawfare to restrict opposition activities ahead of the vote.
On January 17, Byabakama declared Museveni the winner with 71.65 percent of the vote, his strongest performance since the turn of the century. Wine received 24.72 percent, while other candidates trailed far behind. Voter turnout stood at 52.5 percent, the lowest since Uganda’s return to multiparty politics in 2006.
Wine rejected the results as “fake” and “fabricated,” claiming he had video evidence of electoral commission officials and security forces ticking ballots in favor of Museveni. Irregularities at Museveni’s own polling station showed 589 votes cast despite only 577 registered voters. Wine went into hiding after security forces raided his residence on January 16, with at least seven protesters killed overnight.
“They do this because they are afraid of the people’s reaction after stealing their vote,” Wine wrote on social media before disappearing from public view.
Economic Gains and Growing Inequality
Museveni’s campaign slogan, “Protecting the Gains: Making a Qualitative Leap into High Middle-Income Status,” highlighted economic achievements. According to government figures, Uganda’s economy doubled from $34.7 billion in 2019 to $61.3 billion in 2024-25, with projections reaching $66.1 billion in 2026. GDP per capita rose from $891 to $1,263, and official poverty rates fell from 21.4 percent in 2016 to 16.1 percent by 2020.
Yet independent researchers paint a more complex picture. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics revised its poverty line in 2020, showing national poverty at about 30 percent rather than the 20 percent suggested by the older measure. When using the international poverty line of $2.15 per day, approximately 42 percent of Ugandans lived in poverty as of 2020.
Critics argue the gains disproportionately benefit a corrupt elite while ordinary Ugandans struggle. Youth unemployment exceeds 62 percent, and despite economic growth, structural transformation remains limited. The agriculture sector, which employs 40 percent of workers and accounts for nearly a quarter of GDP, remains vulnerable to climate shocks and characterized by low productivity.
Uganda’s debt burden has grown significantly, with heavy infrastructure investments fueling borrowing. The International Monetary Fund assesses Uganda has a moderate risk of debt distress with limited space to absorb shocks, though the country owes most debt to traditional multilateral lenders.
Oil: The Promise and Peril
Uganda’s economic future hinges on its nascent oil sector. With an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of recoverable reserves, production is expected to reach 230,000 barrels per day once extraction begins, roughly matching Gabon’s output. The IMF predicts Uganda’s economy could grow over 12 percent in 2026 depending on when oil production commences.
But petroleum development has sparked controversy. The 2012 Petroleum Bill, which the NRM touted as bringing transparency, has faced criticism from analysts and civil society. Angelo Izama, a Ugandan energy analyst at the Open Society Foundation, described the law as “handing over an ATM machine” to Museveni’s regime.
Environmental activists have been repeatedly arrested and denied bail for peacefully protesting against the East African Crude Oil Pipeline between June and October 2025. Global Witness, an international NGO, estimates oil reserves could generate $2.4 billion annually, potentially doubling government revenue within six to ten years. Whether these resources will benefit ordinary Ugandans or entrench patronage networks remains uncertain.
Luwero’s Bitter Legacy
Perhaps nowhere is disillusionment with the NRM more pronounced than in Luwero, the birthplace of the liberation struggle. The district that once welcomed Museveni and provided manpower for his guerrilla war has become an opposition stronghold.
In the 2026 presidential election, Wine secured 78,939 votes (60.2 percent) in Luwero compared to Museveni’s 48,452 votes (36.8 percent). The National Unity Platform retained all four parliamentary seats and the district chairperson position, winning 17 of 32 council seats.
Incumbent District Chairperson Erastus Kibirango said the results sent “a clear message that residents had lost trust in the NRM government due to its failure to deliver services.” Despite the district’s sacrifices during the liberation war, Luwero continues to lag in development, residents say.
“Despite the area’s contribution to the NRA fighters, Luwero is grappling with rampant land grabbing allegedly backed by state institutions such as the police and courts,” said Elvis Musoke, a resident of Luwero Sub-county. “Even after raising the issue with President Museveni during the campaigns, no lasting solution was provided, leaving residents with little incentive to vote for him.”
Human Rights Under Pressure
International observers have documented a steady deterioration in civil liberties. The State Department’s human rights reports describe torture as rampant with “impunity for torture” pervasive. Human Rights Watch has reported on unlawful detention and torture of hundreds since at least 2018.
Long-time opposition leader Kizza Besigye was abducted in Kenya in November 2024 and forcibly transported to Uganda, where he faces treason charges and the death penalty. Kenyan and Tanzanian lawyers attempting to represent him have faced roadblocks. Besigye, who has challenged Museveni in multiple elections, has been arrested or detained over 1,000 times during his political career.
Civil society has faced mounting pressure. Ugandan authorities suspended 54 civil society groups after the 2021 elections, accusing them of foreign-sponsored interference. The government forced the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights to close its Uganda office in 2023.
Journalists covering elections have been targeted with violence, detention, and torture. At least 15 journalists covering by-elections in Kawempe North in March 2025 were attacked by the Anti-Terrorism Task Force, causing several media outlets to withdraw reporters.
In a New Year’s Eve address on December 31, 2025, Museveni recommended security forces use more tear gas against what he called “the criminal opposition,” defending the dispersal of Wine’s supporters by saying tear gas “doesn’t kill. It is much better than using live bullets.”
The Succession Question
As Museveni extends his rule past four decades, speculation about succession intensifies. His eldest son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, 51, serves as Chief of Defence Forces and has signaled interest in eventually becoming president. In 2023, he asserted he was “tired of waiting,” and briefly declared his 2026 candidacy before withdrawing to endorse his father.
Kainerugaba has sparked controversy with provocative social media posts threatening political rivals. He warned he would behead Wine and hang Besigye, drawing international concern. He has expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, statements that strained Uganda’s relations with Western partners.
Analysts warn that a hereditary transition would further undermine democratic norms. Yet as a serving army officer, Kainerugaba is legally prohibited from participating in politics, creating constitutional complications for any succession plan.
International Relations Under Strain
Uganda’s relationship with Western powers has deteriorated. The United States has threatened to revoke Uganda’s trade privileges under the African Growth and Opportunity Act due to political crackdowns and controversial anti-LGBTQ+ laws passed in 2023. The European Union, United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, Ireland, and Norway suspended aid following corruption scandals, including the embezzlement of $12.6 million in donor funds from the Office of the Prime Minister in 2012.
Yet Uganda remains a key security partner for the United States, particularly for counterterrorism efforts in Somalia. The country hosts one of the world’s largest refugee populations, providing sanctuary to over 1.5 million people fleeing violence in South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, and elsewhere.
Uganda has deepened economic ties with non-Western partners, including China, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates. China’s share of Uganda’s debt has risen, though traditional multilateral lenders remain the largest creditors.
A Generation’s Discontent
Over 70 percent of Ugandans are under 35, a demographic reality that shapes political dynamics. Most of the population has known only Museveni’s rule. For them, the liberation struggle is history, not lived experience. Their concerns center on unemployment, corruption, and limited opportunities.
Wine’s appeal stems from this generational divide. The former musician speaks the language of youth frustration, promising radical change after four decades of NRM dominance. His campaign rallies draw massive crowds, though security forces have repeatedly disrupted them with tear gas and bullets.
“Being in the opposition in Uganda means being labeled a terrorist,” Wine told the BBC in April 2025, highlighting the harassment opposition members face.
Youth-led protests in neighboring Kenya and Tanzania in recent years have demonstrated growing anger over corruption and limited economic opportunity, pressures Uganda’s leadership is keen to contain. Yet whether repression can indefinitely suppress demands for change remains uncertain.
Regional Implications
Uganda’s trajectory matters beyond its borders. The country is engaged in controversial military deployments in the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan. Museveni has positioned himself as a regional power broker, though these interventions have sparked criticism and complicated diplomacy.
Recent cooperation among East African governments in restricting opposition activities raises concerns about democratic backsliding. Besigye’s abduction in Kenya and forcible return to Uganda highlighted how cross-border security cooperation can undermine rule of law.
Some experts warn Uganda faces growing risk of instability. The combination of authoritarian drift, succession uncertainty, economic pressures, and youth discontent creates volatile conditions.
The Liberation’s Paradox
As Uganda marks 40 years since the NRA’s victory, the country confronts a profound paradox. The movement that promised to end dictatorship and restore democracy has itself become what it once fought against. The leader who warned against overstaying in power has systematically removed every constitutional barrier to indefinite rule.
Museveni’s supporters argue his continued leadership provides stability and experience essential for Uganda’s development. They point to infrastructure improvements, peace in most of the country, and economic growth. NRM officials maintain that achievements across health, education, and production sectors justify continued rule.
“The opposition are lucky,” Museveni said on January 19 following his election victory. “They have not seen our full strength.”
Critics counter that whatever gains have occurred came at the expense of democracy, human rights, and accountable governance. They note corruption remains pervasive, with Uganda ranking 140th out of 176 nations on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. The World Bank has identified corruption as a severe problem, with the country annually losing 768.9 billion shillings ($286 million).
The contested 2026 election crystallizes these tensions. For Museveni and the NRM, his 71.65 percent victory demonstrates the party’s strength and popular support. For the opposition and many international observers, the result reflects a flawed process where incumbency advantages, security force intimidation, and electoral manipulation determine outcomes.
What Lies Ahead
Museveni will now serve until at least 2031, when he would be 87 years old, bringing him closer to five decades in power. Whether Uganda can achieve a democratic transition of power, something it has never experienced, remains uncertain.
The January 26 liberation anniversary celebrations at Kololo Ceremonial Grounds showcased military might and government achievements. Yet they could not obscure fundamental questions about the liberation’s legacy.
Did the NRA’s 1986 victory truly bring liberation, or merely exchange one form of authoritarian rule for another? Have four decades of Museveni’s leadership delivered the fundamental change promised, or entrenched systems of patronage and repression? Can Uganda reconcile the legitimate desire for stability with equally legitimate demands for democracy and accountability?
These questions will shape Uganda’s future. The next generation, which never experienced the chaos the NRM ended, may prove less willing to trade freedom for stability. Economic pressures, succession uncertainties, and regional dynamics add complexity.
For now, Wine remains in hiding, the opposition regroups amid repression, and Museveni consolidates another term. The liberation struggle that began 45 years ago in the bush continues, though its nature and objectives have fundamentally transformed.
As Uganda enters its fifth decade under NRM rule, the 1986 inaugural address echoes with renewed relevance: “The problem of Africa in general and Uganda in particular is not the people but leaders who want to overstay in power.”
Four decades later, those words have become Uganda’s enduring challenge.
