When Yoweri Museveni seized power in Uganda in 1986 after a five-year guerrilla war, the young rebel leader delivered a message that would haunt his critics for decades.
“The problem of Africa in general and Uganda in particular is not the people but leaders who want to overstay in power,” he declared at his swearing-in ceremony.
Nearly four decades later, the 81-year-old president is poised to extend his rule into a seventh term in Thursday’s general election, a vote that pits the veteran strongman against a youthful opposition led by pop star-turned-politician Bobi Wine.
With more than three-quarters of Uganda’s 46 million people under 40, most citizens have known only one leader: Museveni. His longevity makes him one of Africa’s longest-serving rulers, a status achieved through constitutional changes that scrapped term limits in 2005 and age restrictions in 2017.
Election campaign marred by intimidation claims
The election, scheduled for 15 January 2026, comes amid a campaign marked by allegations of violence, intimidation and restrictions on opposition activities. Rights groups have documented harassment, arrests and disruptions of rallies, particularly those of Bobi Wine, whose National Unity Platform has energised young voters frustrated by unemployment, corruption and a lack of political change.
Museveni, campaigning under the slogan “Protecting the gains,” portrays himself as the guarantor of Uganda’s relative stability after years of turmoil under predecessors like Idi Amin and Milton Obote. His government has earned praise for combating the AIDS epidemic in the 1990s, defeating the brutal Lord’s Resistance Army insurgency in the north, and contributing troops to regional peacekeeping missions in Somalia and South Sudan.
He has also welcomed millions of refugees, bolstering Uganda’s image as a reliable Western ally despite persistent criticism over human rights.
Mixed legacy overshadowed by corruption
Yet Museveni’s record is deeply mixed. Widespread corruption has eroded public services, with parliamentary reports detailing how state enterprises were privatised at bargain prices to relatives and allies, leading to embezzlement allegations. Only one in four children who start primary school reaches secondary level, according to UNICEF, while well-paid jobs remain elusive for many in a rapidly growing but unequal economy.
“Corruption has been central to his rule from the beginning,” said Kristof Titeca, a professor at the University of Antwerp specialising in Ugandan politics.
Museveni has acknowledged graft among officials but insists those caught have faced prosecution. He has diversified foreign ties, courting China, Russia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates to offset Western pressure, while oil discoveries have led to major deals with TotalEnergies and China’s CNOOC for an export pipeline.
From bush fighter to long-serving president
His path to power began humbly. Born to Christian nomadic pastoralists, Museveni attended an elite secondary school before studying political science at the University of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania. There, he founded a militant student group that evolved into the armed struggle against Amin and later Obote.
After Obote’s ouster in a 1985 coup and the brief rule of Tito Okello, Museveni’s National Resistance Movement captured Kampala in January 1986. “This is not a mere change of guard,” he proclaimed. “This is a fundamental change in the politics of our government.”
Initial Western applause for economic reforms and stability soon faded as allegations of authoritarianism grew. Museveni has won every election since, often amid claims of irregularities that opposition figures, including four-time challenger Kizza Besigye — now jailed on treason charges — have rejected. Besigye, once Museveni’s personal doctor in the bush war, accuses him of presiding over graft and rights abuses.
In 2021, Museveni secured 58% of the vote against Bobi Wine’s 35%, a result the opposition denounced as fraudulent amid internet blackouts, violence and arrests.
This year’s rematch features eight candidates, but analysts see little chance of an upset given Museveni’s dominance of state institutions, the military and patronage networks.
Succession questions loom large
The real intrigue lies beyond the ballot: succession. Museveni shows signs of frailty, yet remains a self-described workaholic unlikely to step aside voluntarily.
“The big question looming over the election is the question of succession,” Titeca said.
Attention centres on Museveni’s son, 51-year-old General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the chief of defence forces. His rapid promotions have fuelled accusations of grooming for power, despite the president’s denials. Kainerugaba’s frequent inflammatory posts on X have stirred controversy, while veteran bush-war comrades have been sidelined.
Former newspaper editor Charles Onyango-Obbo argues the vote’s “mood on the ground” matters more than official results. A narrower margin than in 2021 could prompt Museveni to elevate other figures and deflect dynastic criticism.
“This is less about the results that will be announced, and more about the mood on the ground,” Onyango-Obbo said. “Museveni is more frail now, but he is a workaholic… he will not leave even if he needs to use a walking stick.”
A handover, if it comes, appears years away. For now, Uganda faces another chapter in Museveni’s long rule — a testament to the enduring paradox of a leader who once decried overstaying presidents, only to become the archetype himself.
Reuters contributed to this report
