When U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance arrives in Nairobi on November 24, he will be engaging with a key African ally at a moment of significant strain. The visit, which runs until November 27, is the first high-level trip to the region under President Donald Trump’s new administration and comes as several pillars of the long-standing U.S.-Kenya relationship are under pressure.

The agenda is packed with urgent issues, from the expiration of a critical trade pact to a controversial peacekeeping mission in Haiti. For Kenyan President William Ruto, who has staked his international reputation on a close partnership with Washington, the talks are a crucial test of that alliance.

Key Issues on the Agenda

  • The economic impact of AGOA’s expiration
  • Kenya’s Major Non-NATO Ally status
  • Kenya’s role in regional security
  • The Haiti peacekeeping mission
  • Countering China’s influence

1. A Lapsed Trade Deal and Economic Anxiety

The most immediate concern is the economic fallout from the expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). The U.S. trade preference program, which allowed duty-free access for thousands of African products, lapsed in September, creating uncertainty for Kenya’s key exports.

The stakes are high. AGOA directly supported an estimated 65,000 Kenyan jobs, largely in the textile sector. In 2023, Kenya exported $737 million worth of goods to the United States under the program.

Kenya is now pushing for a five-year extension or a new deal by the end of 2025, but the Trump administration has yet to signal its intentions. Vance’s position will be closely watched by businesses in Kenya’s Export Processing Zones, which face a return to tariffs as high as 16%.

2. The Fate of a Coveted Security Status

In 2024, Kenya became the first sub-Saharan nation to be designated a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) by the Biden administration. The status provides preferential access to U.S. military financing and equipment.

However, the designation has faced Republican scrutiny in Washington. Senator James Risch has called for a review, arguing the decision was rushed. Vance, a key architect of Trump’s foreign policy, will now determine the status’s future. Rescinding it would be a major diplomatic blow to Nairobi and could open the door for other nations, like China and Türkiye, to deepen their security ties with Kenya.

3. A Regional Security Partner Under Strain

Kenya remains a critical U.S. security partner in a volatile region. The U.S. relies on its Manda Bay base in coastal Kenya for counter-terrorism operations against al Shabaab in Somalia.

Vance is expected to discuss a new Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) targeting narcotics routes in the Indian Ocean. U.S. officials see these routes as a dangerous link between militant groups and international crime syndicates. Despite this cooperation, Kenya’s own peacemaking efforts in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo have shown limited progress.

4. The High-Stakes Haiti Mission

A central, and politically sensitive, topic will be Kenya’s leadership of a multinational security mission in Haiti. President Ruto defied domestic opposition to deploy 800 Kenyan police officers to combat powerful armed gangs.

The mission is a cornerstone of Ruto’s bid to position Kenya as a global player, but it faces a funding crisis. The United States had pledged $200 million for the effort, but those funds are now in question as the mission is restructured into a “Gang Suppression Force.”

Ruto will be seeking a firm financial commitment from Vance, as a failed mission would be a severe blow to his prestige.

5. The Unspoken Challenge: China’s Deepening Influence

Underpinning the talks is the unspoken competition with China, which has become Kenya’s largest infrastructure financier. Beijing bankrolled the $4.7 billion Standard Gauge Railway and dominates construction across the country.

The economic competition was highlighted recently when Kenya cancelled a $3.6 billion expressway contract that had been awarded to a U.S. firm. Vance’s challenge will be to present a viable U.S. economic alternative to China’s deep-pocketed offer, moving beyond a relationship based primarily on security.

A Partnership at a Crossroads

The Vance visit is more than a diplomatic formality. Its outcome will signal whether the Trump administration views Kenya as a strategic partner to be invested in, or a transactional ally in a region where Washington’s influence is no longer guaranteed.