Is a Return to Conflict Inevitable in Tigray?

Infighting among rival factions in Ethiopia’s Tigray region has escalated significantly in recent weeks, raising deep concerns and fears of a potential return to widespread conflict just over a year after a fragile peace agreement was reached, which had successfully ended a devastating civil war that caused immense suffering and loss.

The alarming situation has prompted urgent international calls for constructive dialogue and heightened caution among residents, who are increasingly anxious about their safety and the stability of their communities.

Key Takeaways

• Rival factions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) are clashing, leading to increased tensions.
• The federal government has been urged to intervene as fears of a new conflict grow.
• International embassies are warning their citizens to avoid travel to the region.

Background of the Conflict

The Tigray region has been a focal point of violence in Ethiopia, particularly from 2020 to 2022, when a brutal civil war erupted, resulting in an estimated 600,000 deaths, a staggering loss of life that has left deep scars on the community.

The conflict involved local Tigrayan forces, the federal government, and Eritrean troops, each playing a significant role in the escalation of hostilities and the ensuing humanitarian crisis.

Despite a peace agreement reached in November 2022, which was hoped to pave the way for reconciliation and recovery, stability remains elusive, with ongoing tensions and sporadic violence continuing to affect the lives of countless individuals in the region.

Current Situation

Recent developments have seen the TPLF faction, which is led by the prominent figure Debretsion Gebremichael, actively challenge the interim administration that is currently headed by Getachew Reda.

On Tuesday, forces that are loyal to Debretsion successfully seized control of Adigrat, which is recognized as Tigray’s second-largest city, and they have made significant moves to take over key offices in the regional capital, Mekelle, indicating a serious escalation in the ongoing power struggle.

• Suspension of Military Leaders: Getachew Reda has suspended three generals of the Tigray Defence Forces, accusing them of colluding with Debretsion’s faction to destabilize the region.
• Public Response: Residents are withdrawing money from banks and stockpiling supplies amid fears of escalating violence. Reports indicate that fuel prices have surged, and essential goods are becoming scarce.

International Reactions

The situation has drawn significant concern from various international bodies, highlighting the gravity of the circumstances at hand. A coalition of Western embassies, including the U.S. and the EU, has urgently called for all parties involved to engage in meaningful and constructive dialogue to prevent a return to violence, which could have devastating consequences for the region.

France has specifically advised its nationals in Tigray to stock up on essential emergency supplies and exercise extreme caution in their movements, as the situation continues to evolve and poses serious risks.

Potential for Escalation

Experts warn that the ongoing power struggle within the TPLF, which has been marked by intense rivalry and factional disputes, could lead to renewed armed conflict that may destabilize the entire region.

The internal divisions are seen as a potential trigger for violence, with some analysts suggesting that the Ethiopian government may benefit from a weakened TPLF, as it could allow for greater control over the Tigray region and diminish the influence of the TPLF in national politics.

• Geopolitical Tensions: The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea remains fraught, with fears that Eritrea could exploit the instability in Tigray to intervene militarily.

Conclusion

As tensions rise in Tigray, the international community watches closely, urging restraint and dialogue. The region, still reeling from the aftermath of a devastating war, faces the grim prospect of renewed conflict unless swift action is taken to address the underlying issues and restore stability.