Who Owns Africa’s Mining Sector? China vs USA vs Europe

Sub-Saharan Africa stands at the center of an intensifying geopolitical competition as China, the United States and Europe vie for control of the continent’s critical mineral wealth, projected to generate nearly $2 trillion in revenue by 2050.

The stakes extend far beyond economics. These minerals — cobalt, copper, lithium and nickel — form the backbone of the global energy transition, powering electric vehicles, renewable energy systems and advanced electronics. Africa’s role has become indispensable, with the continent holding approximately 30% of the world’s known mineral reserves.

According to analysis published by the Brookings Institution in January 2026, the International Monetary Fund estimates that four critical minerals alone — cobalt, copper, lithium and nickel — will generate $2 trillion in revenue for African nations over the next 25 years. These revenues are expected to surpass fossil fuel earnings by 3.1 times between 2024 and 2050.

China’s Two-Decade Advantage

China has established itself as the dominant player through aggressive, state-backed investments spanning more than two decades. Operating primarily through the Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese companies now control an estimated 72% of copper and cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world’s leading cobalt producer.

In 2024, China-Africa trade volume approached $300 billion, tripling U.S.-Africa trade, according to research by the African Development Bank. Chinese mining and battery companies have invested $4.5 billion in African lithium mines in recent years, driving projects across Namibia, Zimbabwe and Mali.

Chinese dominance extends beyond extraction. The country controls approximately 87% of global critical mineral processing and refining capacity. In the DRC alone, Chinese state-owned enterprises operate 15 of 17 major cobalt mining operations, many linked to Belt and Road infrastructure investments.

The 2008 Sicomines agreement exemplifies China’s approach: Chinese partners received mining rights to cobalt and copper in exchange for infrastructure development including roads, highways and hospitals. Between 2008 and 2022, China provided $11 billion in loans to three mining sites in southern DRC — Tenke Fungurume, Kinsenda and Sicomines — representing 42% of China’s total investment portfolio in the country during that period.

Recent projects include a $751 million investment by JCHX Mining in January 2025 to develop the Lonshi Copper Mine’s East Zone, expected to unlock 3.5 million tonnes of copper annually. In Mali, Ganfeng Lithium began production at the Goulamina Lithium Project in late 2024, one of Africa’s largest lithium resources, set to supply 15.6 million tonnes of spodumene concentrate over two decades.

America’s Strategic Pivot

The United States has intensified engagement following years of relative absence, driven by national security concerns and the need to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains. The Trump administration designated copper as a critical mineral in November 2024, while the Biden administration committed to major infrastructure projects before leaving office.

The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation has emerged as Washington’s primary tool. As of June 30, 2025, the DFC held $1.6 billion in mining project investments across Brazil, Mozambique and South Africa. The agency’s Africa portfolio exceeds $13 billion across all sectors.

In October 2025, the DFC partnered with U.S. investment firm Orion and Abu Dhabi-based ADQ to launch the Orion Critical Mineral Consortium, a $1.8 billion financing vehicle with plans to expand to $5 billion. The fund targets critical mineral production in emerging markets, with Africa positioned as a primary beneficiary.

Recent DFC approvals include $4.6 million for Mkango Resources’ Songwe Hill Rare Earth Project in Malawi, $6.5 million for Twigg Exploration’s Balama Graphite Project in Mozambique, and $3 million for Millennial Potash’s Banio Potash Project in Gabon. In July 2025, the DFC approved two undisclosed strategic transactions in Sub-Saharan Africa for critical mineral supply chain strengthening.

The crown jewel of U.S. infrastructure investment remains the Lobito Corridor. The DFC provided a $553 million loan for the 1,300-kilometer rail line connecting the Port of Lobito in Angola to Luau on the DRC border. President Biden called it “the biggest American rail investment outside of America” during his December 2024 Angola visit.

The project competes directly with China’s Tanzania-Zambia railway, which connects to the Port of Dar es Salaam and is projected to transport 3 million metric tonnes of minerals annually. Key segments of the Lobito Corridor are expected to reach operational readiness in 2026, dramatically reducing transport costs and transit times for copper and cobalt exports to Atlantic markets.

Europe’s Belated Entry

The European Union has accelerated its African engagement in recent years, pivoting from traditional aid relationships toward strategic mineral partnerships. In November 2025, the EU signed a landmark agreement with South Africa committing €750 million through its Global Gateway program for infrastructure, clean energy and industrialization projects.

The agreement marked a significant shift: for the first time, Europe formally backed African mineral processing rather than raw material export. The EU has signed mineral and energy strategic partnerships with the DRC, Namibia, Rwanda and Zambia, emphasizing local value addition.

In 2024, 40% of the European Investment Bank’s external financing — €3.1 billion — went to Africa. The EU announced a €4.7 billion financing package to support mineral processing, green hydrogen and transport infrastructure in South Africa, the world’s largest producer of platinum group metals.

In June 2025, the EU designated four Africa-based projects as strategic initiatives under the Critical Raw Materials Act: Mkango Resources’ 8,425-tonne-per-annum Songwe Hill Rare Earths Project in Malawi, Frontier Rare Earths’ 4,000-tonne Zandkopsdrift project in South Africa, Evion Group’s Maniry Graphite Project in Madagascar, and a 6,000-tonne cobalt refinery in Zambia.

The Africa Finance Corporation secured a €250 million, 10-year loan from Italy’s development bank Cassa Depositi e Prestiti to advance the Lobito Corridor. The European Investment Bank approved €113 million to co-finance Mauritania’s iron ore rail line expansion, part of a broader €461 million investment to boost export capacity.

Two new EU programs announced in June 2025 deepened partnership with the DRC. The Cobalt for Development project aims to formalize small-scale mining operations, while the upcoming Panafgeo+ geological mapping program will enhance geological knowledge in collaboration with DRC’s Ministry of Mines.

Africa’s Push for Value Addition

African nations are increasingly asserting control over their resources through export restrictions and local processing mandates. Analysis from The Conversation suggests African countries could capture an additional $2.5 trillion in value by 2050 through integrated processing operations — potentially multiplying mineral revenues by 300-400%.

Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Ghana have banned raw lithium exports to encourage domestic processing. From January 1, 2026, Zambia implemented new local-sourcing legislation compelling mines to purchase 20% of core goods and 100% of secondary goods from Zambian-owned businesses, with the core provision set to increase to 40% over time.

In 2025, the DRC and Zambia launched a transboundary battery and electric vehicle special economic zone along their shared mining belt, supported by Africa Export-Import Bank and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. The initiative aligns with the African Mining Vision and African Commodities Strategy, which call for transparent, equitable resource use.

Morocco currently hosts viable battery-grade chemical refining, while Zimbabwe advances a $450 million refinery at the Mapinga Industrial Park. China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt announced in October 2025 that it would start producing lithium sulphate during the first quarter of 2026 from its new $400 million plant in Zimbabwe.

According to data from Who Owns Africa, a platform tracking investment and ownership patterns across the continent, transparency remains a critical challenge. The concentration of Chinese ownership in key sectors has raised concerns about long-term economic sovereignty, while Western investors face criticism for risk aversion and slower capital deployment.

The Infrastructure Imperative

Infrastructure deficits pose perhaps the greatest obstacle to realizing Africa’s mineral potential. The rail and port financing needs for Guinea’s Simandou iron ore mine alone are estimated at $6 billion. The Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa’s regional projects, many mining-related, require an estimated $360 billion by 2040.

Kansanshi, Africa’s largest copper mine in Zambia, exemplifies both the sector’s potential and challenges. As global demand for copper surges — with the International Energy Agency warning of a 30% deficit by 2035 — Zambia struggles with endemic power shortages. In 1996, 46% of Zambians lived in poverty; today it’s 63%, despite decades of mineral wealth extraction.

South Africa’s licensing delays, which can exceed 300 days, have held back billions in potential investment. The country’s mining sector received a regulatory overhaul in 2025 with the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Amendment Bill, though industry players remain skeptical about whether it resolves policy uncertainty.

Exploration investment in Africa totaled $1.27 billion in 2024, lagging behind Latin America and Australia despite the continent’s geological potential. Over $9 billion in critical mineral projects remain in the pipeline, yet less than 10% have secured financing and progressed to construction or feasibility stages, according to McKinsey’s MineSpans analysis.

Production and Processing Reality

The DRC dominated global cobalt supply in 2024, with top mines including Kisanfu (51.92 kilotonnes, 19.95% of global production), Tenke Fungurume (48.08 kilotonnes) and Kamoto (27.2 kilotonnes). Together, these operations accounted for more than 50% of global cobalt output. The country accounted for 97.2% of regional cobalt production in 2024.

Africa’s copper production reached 4.2 million tonnes in 2025 despite disruptions from seismic activity. The DRC’s copper production is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.3% through 2030. Zambia’s production is projected to rise 19.2% in 2025 to 937.5 kilotonnes, primarily driven by higher output from ZCCM Investment Holdings’ Mopani mine.

Africa produced 124,230 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2024, primarily from hard rock spodumene deposits. Zimbabwe leads continental output, with Mali, Namibia, South Africa, Ghana and the DRC ramping up production. The continent holds 26.7 million tonnes of identified lithium resources, representing approximately 5% of the global total.

Platinum remains the cornerstone of Africa’s mining landscape, with the region accounting for 80.3% of global production in 2024. South Africa dominates with 89% of regional output, while Zimbabwe contributes 11%. Zimbabwe’s platinum production is expected to rebound in 2026 with the commissioning of the Mupan and Karo Platinum projects.

The Human Cost and Environmental Challenge

The scramble for minerals has exacerbated long-standing concerns about labor practices and environmental degradation. In the DRC, more than 40,000 children work in artisanal cobalt, lithium and rare earth mining, according to testimony before a 2022 U.S. congressional hearing.

A prominent Congolese civil rights attorney testified that children work at mines like the Kasulo deposit, owned or effectively operated by Chinese companies. Research by the German Institute of Global and Area Studies found that while non-Chinese mining operations correlate with higher employment rates in surrounding areas, proximity to Chinese-controlled mines showed no reduction in unemployment risk.

In Zambia, victims of the Kafue River spill launched a landmark High Court case in September 2025 against mining operations. The case exemplifies growing sophistication among African communities deploying local monitoring teams, strategic litigation and partnerships with civil society groups to hold mining companies accountable.

Environmental safeguards remain inconsistent. The DRC government’s blockchain-based “E-trace” system aims to track cobalt exports and strengthen supply chain transparency. Mali’s Fekola Gold Mine demonstrates renewable energy potential with a 115 MW hybrid power station (30 MW solar, battery and thermal) that significantly offsets diesel consumption and carbon emissions.

Competing Models, Divergent Approaches

The three powers offer distinctly different partnership models. China emphasizes infrastructure-for-resources deals with state-backed financing and rapid deployment. Chinese development banks often finance African governments, state-run banks or Chinese state-owned enterprises operating overseas.

The United States prioritizes private sector engagement through the DFC, which partners primarily with private businesses and emphasizes environmental, social and governance standards. The Minerals Security Partnership, established in 2022, coordinates with allied nations including Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea and European countries to diversify supply chains.

Europe focuses on sustainable mining practices, regulatory compliance and local value chain integration. The EU’s approach emphasizes co-investment, risk-sharing and building project pipelines, though critics contend European financing remains slow and conservative compared to Chinese capital deployment.

“The old model of pledges and handouts has run its course,” said Paul Walton, executive director of the Africa-Europe Foundation, following the November 2025 Luanda summit. “The task is to cement the investment case, build pipelines of bankable projects and address misconceptions around risk.”

Strategic Implications and Future Outlook

The competition extends beyond commercial interests to encompass technological supremacy, industrial policy and geopolitical influence. Control of critical mineral supply chains determines which nations lead in electric vehicle manufacturing, renewable energy deployment and advanced electronics production.

Amaka Anku, who heads the Africa practice at New York-based Eurasia Group, expressed skepticism about U.S. prospects. “It’s dribs and drabs,” she said in a November 2025 interview. “I don’t see a groundswell of U.S. companies investing in Africa. Until I see real numbers follow this, I remain skeptical.”

Chinese mining companies represent only 8% of Africa’s total mining output, according to Eric Olander, co-founder of the China-Global South Project, speaking at a U.S. Institute for Peace event. Anglo-American alone accounts for more than double that share. “We have a tendency to inflate the importance of the Chinese in the mining sector,” Olander noted.

Nevertheless, China’s dominance in processing and refining — controlling 87% of global capacity — gives it outsized influence over supply chains regardless of extraction location. Beijing’s investments in alternative battery technologies, including sodium-ion batteries that don’t rely on lithium and lithium-iron-phosphate batteries without cobalt, manganese or nickel, may further reshape market dynamics.

The $7 billion Nacala Corridor Development Project, financed by Japan, the African Development Bank, Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia under the Tokyo International Conference on African Development, demonstrates how shared financing, civil society oversight and strict certification can support responsible mineral supply chains.

The 2026 Inflection Point

Multiple factors converge in 2026 to create what industry analysts describe as a critical juncture. The Lobito Corridor’s key segments reach operational readiness. Major mining projects including Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC, Simandou in Guinea and multiple lithium operations across Zimbabwe and Mali hit production milestones.

Ivanhoe Mines projects copper output at Kamoa-Kakula to reach between 380,000 and 420,000 tonnes in 2026. Guinea’s Simandou megaproject targets production capacity of 39.3 million tonnes by late 2025, backed by over $26 billion in investment. Mali’s Goulamina Lithium Project continues generating battery-grade concentrate, supporting the country’s emergence as a key supplier.

Mining Indaba, Africa’s largest investment conference scheduled for February 9-12, 2026 in Cape Town, will showcase the competing visions. With participation from mining companies, governments, investors and equipment providers, the event serves as a barometer for sector sentiment and deal-making momentum.

African Mining Week, scheduled for November 16-18, 2026, will feature dedicated roundtables examining China-Africa, U.S.-Africa and EU-Africa partnerships. The conference positions itself as a platform for exploring sustainable development pathways that balance foreign investment with domestic industrialization goals.

The Path Forward

Whether Africa captures the potential $2.5 trillion in additional value from processing depends on resolving fundamental challenges: reliable electricity, water supply, transportation networks and regulatory predictability. The DRC’s electrification rate remains among the continent’s lowest, with most infrastructure outdated or nonfunctional.

“This problem is bigger than individual countries,” said Ibrahima Aidara, deputy Africa director at the Natural Resource Governance Institute. “We believe at the national level we need well-defined and evidence-based strategies to leverage minerals and create more economic and industrialization opportunities.”

The sector is projected to create 286,000 additional formal jobs in mining by 2040, though local processing is required to maximize economic benefits. Special economic zones along transportation corridors, such as the Kigali Special Economic Zone hosting 243 firms and generating over 16,000 jobs, offer models for integrated development.

Hany Besada, senior fellow at the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa at the London School of Economics, framed the moment as unprecedented. “This is an unprecedented opportunity for Africa to get on the value-chain bandwagon,” he said. “The continent must address power shortages, skills gaps, trade barriers and limited industrial capacity.”

The African Union’s Green Minerals Strategy, launched in 2025, provides a framework for coordinated action. Whether African nations can leverage geopolitical competition to secure better terms, enforce value addition requirements and build sustainable industries will determine if the continent’s mineral wealth finally translates into broad-based prosperity.

As global powers compete for access to Africa’s $2 trillion mining sector, the ultimate victor may be neither China, the United States nor Europe, but rather African nations themselves — if they can successfully navigate the complex dynamics of great power competition while advancing their own development priorities. The next five years will prove decisive in shaping this outcome.