Breaking with tradition
The party’s current predicament centers on a fundamental departure from its founding principles. Throughout its history, ODM fielded presidential candidates in every election cycle — a practice that reinforced its status as a serious contender for national power rather than a regional faction.
That tradition now appears under threat. Party insiders are pushing for a pre-election coalition with the ruling United Democratic Alliance, a move that would leave ODM without its own presidential candidate for the first time. The proposal has exposed deep fissures within the organization.
“Not once in Raila’s leadership did ODM seek partners or coalitions as it is doing now,” said Babu Owino, member of parliament for Embakasi. “Other parties always came to ODM to form alliances.”
The pushback from Owino and other party members reflects anxiety about ODM’s transformation from a movement born of street protests and democratic rebellion into what critics describe as an appendage of the state apparatus.
Winnie Odinga, daughter of the late party leader and now a member of the East African Legislative Assembly, warned during ODM’s 20th anniversary celebrations that the party’s future should not be determined through backroom negotiations. Her intervention highlighted concerns that ODM risks abandoning the grassroots activism that defined its character.
Silent on citizens’ struggles
The party’s participation in the government’s broad-based arrangement has muted its traditional role as a check on executive power. Where Odinga himself maintained his willingness to criticize injustice even while engaged in coalition talks with President William Ruto, current party leadership has largely remained silent on issues affecting ordinary Kenyans.
This shift has not gone unnoticed. ODM, once known for amplifying public grievances against government overreach, now finds itself using public platforms primarily to defend state actions — a reversal that has alarmed longtime supporters and political observers.
The contrast with Odinga’s approach is stark. Even after entering the broad-based agreement with Ruto’s administration, the veteran opposition leader continued speaking out against government failures. The current leadership’s reluctance to adopt similar independence has raised questions about whether ODM can maintain its oppositional identity while participating in government.
Regional retreat warning
James Orengo, governor of Siaya County and a key architect of ODM since its inception, delivered perhaps the most pointed warning about the party’s trajectory. He cautioned that the proposed coalition with UDA threatens to reduce ODM from a national movement to a regional entity confined to Luo Nyanza — the ethnic homeland of its late founder.
“I now see renewed attempts to push ODM back into a purely regional, or even Luo-centric, party,” Orengo said. “Leaders and members from other regions have become noticeably quiet amid the internal conflicts. History shows us this is exactly how national parties are weakened and regionalized.”
Orengo’s analysis carries particular weight given his intimate knowledge of ODM’s evolution. He argued that if the party genuinely sought partnership with Kenya Kwanza or UDA, it should have negotiated from a position of strength rather than appearing desperate for the ruling coalition’s attention.
The governor’s intervention reflects broader anxiety within ODM circles about the party’s negotiating posture. Rather than leveraging its substantial support base to extract concessions, critics argue, party leadership has adopted a supplicant’s stance that diminishes ODM’s value and influence.
“If ODM chooses to work with Kenya Kwanza or UDA under the current circumstances, the likely outcome is that the party will gradually shrink and retreat into Luo Nyanza,” Orengo warned. “Some recent pronouncements already give the impression that ODM is merely a regional party, yet this is not true. We must be extremely cautious not to be driven in that direction.”
The debate over ODM’s future extends beyond electoral strategy to questions of institutional legacy. Odinga spent decades building a party that could compete nationally and serve as a vehicle for democratic accountability. Whether ODM can preserve that legacy without its founder remains the central question facing Kenya’s political opposition.
As the party navigates this critical juncture, the stakes extend beyond its own survival. Kenya’s democratic health depends partly on having robust opposition parties capable of offering voters genuine alternatives and holding the government accountable. ODM’s potential regionalization would represent not just an organizational setback but a loss for pluralistic politics across East Africa’s largest economy.
