Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara is seeking a fourth term in October’s election, running on a platform of economic success while critics decry a stifled democracy. Can the 83-year-old former banker extend his decade-long rule?
For President Alassane Ouattara, the path to power in Ivory Coast was long and bloody, marked by disqualifications from elections and a civil war that erupted when his predecessor refused to concede defeat.
A decade after finally securing the presidency, the 83-year-old former international banker is hoping voters will focus on the peace and prosperity he has overseen, granting him a fourth term in the Oct. 25 election.
His supporters point to the cranes dotting the skyline in the commercial capital, Abidjan, and the new highways stitching the country together. They see a nation transformed from the one torn apart by post-election violence in 2010-11.
“He brought us stability and growth. The country is moving forward,” said Koffi Kouame, a shop owner in the bustling Cocody district. “Why change now?”
But his critics see a different story. They argue the economic boom, while real, has come at the cost of democratic freedoms, with the field of credible challengers systematically cleared before the race even begins.
A Managed Political Field
The man many analysts considered Ouattara’s most formidable potential rival, former Credit Suisse chief executive Tidjane Thiam, was barred from running after a court found he held French nationality when he registered, a violation of Ivorian law. Ouattara’s predecessor, Laurent Gbagbo, remains excluded from the ballot due to a prior conviction.
The four candidates who are running lack the backing of the country’s major political parties, operating instead with what analysts call “makeshift coalitions.”
“All this means that these candidates do not really have a chance,” said Cesar Flan Moquet, director of the Abidjan-based Centre of Political Research.
The government has also imposed a ban on election-related protests, a move Amnesty International recently criticized as “disproportionate.” Authorities plan to deploy 44,000 security forces to prevent unrest.
Jessica Moody, a West Africa political risk consultant, said these measures, while controversial, are likely to prevent the large-scale violence that marred previous votes.
“Tensions do not appear to be running as high as in 2020,” Moody said, noting that the fierce debate over term limits has subsided.
From Economist to Executive
Ouattara’s journey to the top job was turbulent. Born in the central city of Dimbokro in 1942, he earned a doctorate in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and rose to become deputy director of the International Monetary Fund.
He served as prime minister under the nation’s founding president, Felix Houphouet-Boigny. After Houphouet-Boigny’s death in 1993, the political climate soured.
New electoral rules were used to block Ouattara from running in 1995 and again in 2000, with opponents questioning his Ivorian origins. Gbagbo, who won the 2000 election, famously labeled Ouattara “a candidate for the foreigners.”
A 2002 rebellion against Gbagbo split the country in two, laying the groundwork for a full-scale civil war that erupted after the 2010 election when Gbagbo refused to accept his loss to Ouattara. The fighting killed about 3,000 people before Ouattara was finally sworn in in April 2011.
He won re-election by a landslide in 2015 and again in 2020, though the latter vote was clouded by deadly clashes that killed 85 people. His decision to run in 2020 was highly contentious, as critics argued a new constitution adopted in 2016 reset his term limit, a claim opponents rejected.
The Succession Question
If re-elected, Ouattara is expected to continue his focus on ambitious economic targets, including achieving middle-income status for Ivory Coast by 2030. Key projects, like the long-awaited Abidjan metro and nationwide improvements to roads and electricity, are high on the agenda.
But looming over a potential fourth term is the unresolved question of who will eventually succeed him. Ouattara had intended to hand power to a new generation before the 2020 election, naming then-Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly as his chosen heir.
Coulibaly’s sudden death months before the vote forced Ouattara to reverse course and run again. Selecting a new successor will be a delicate task, given the factions within his own ruling party.
“I don’t think he lacks the motivation to stand down,” Moody said. “He will be 88 by the next election.”
For now, Ouattara is betting that for a majority of Ivorians, the tangible benefits of roads and economic growth will outweigh concerns about the political landscape. As the country approaches another pivotal vote, the legacy of its resilient leader once again hangs in the balance.
