Somalia is edging closer to becoming East Africa’s newest oil frontier, and the world’s energy companies are paying attention. Nearly 400 kilometres off the coast of Mogadishu, a Turkish drillship is boring through 3,000 metres of water in search of the country’s first commercial hydrocarbon discovery, a test that could reshape one of the world’s most fragile economies and redraw investment maps across the Horn of Africa.
For decades, Somalia’s oil and gas potential was more myth than measurable resource, discussed in geological surveys but never confirmed by a drill bit. That changed this year, when the Turkish Petroleum Corporation, known as TPAO, began sinking the Curad-1 well using the ultra-deepwater drillship Çağrı Bey. According to the Somali Petroleum Authority, the well reached roughly 3,000 metres by late August, ahead of schedule and without technical setbacks, targeting a total depth of about 7,500 metres.
A Well Decades in the Making
The Curad-1 well is the product of a long chain of agreements between Ankara and Mogadishu, part of a broader security and economic partnership that stretches back to 2011. A hydrocarbon cooperation deal signed in 2024 gave TPAO exploration rights across three offshore blocks covering some 4,464 square kilometres, following seismic surveys conducted by the research vessel Oruç Reis.
Turkish officials have described the project as technically demanding, given the extreme water depth and the near total absence of prior offshore infrastructure in Somali waters. A naval escort, including frigates and a landing ship, accompanied the drillship to its location, underlining the security calculations that still shape any energy investment in the country.
Somalia’s Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister, Dahir Shire Mohamed, said in comments carried by Daily Sabah that Mogadishu expects meaningful results before the end of the year, and that cooperation with Ankara could extend into mining as well as oil.
Just How Much Oil Is There?
Estimating Somalia’s reserves remains an inexact science. A 2012 assessment cited by regional media put potential offshore reserves at roughly 10 billion barrels across 53 blocks along the country’s 3,000 kilometre coastline. More recent United States government assessments, reported by Middle East Eye, suggest the country could hold at least 30 billion barrels of combined oil and natural gas resources.
Somali officials have floated even larger figures in public statements, though independent verification is still lacking. A petroleum ministry official earlier this year suggested that just two offshore blocks could be worth more than a trillion dollars at current prices, a claim that industry analysts treat with caution until exploration wells confirm commercial flow rates.
That uncertainty is normal in frontier basins. Neighbouring Kenya, Mozambique and Tanzania all carried similarly bold estimates before drilling began, and some of Somalia’s own disputed blocks near the Kenyan maritime boundary have already proven commercially unviable. Analysts caution that turning a discovery into production typically requires three to five years of sustained investment, plus several billion dollars in infrastructure spending.
The Legal Architecture Behind the Rush
Much of the current interest traces back to Somalia’s Petroleum Law, passed by parliament and later ratified by the president. The law created two key institutions, the Somali National Oil Company and the Somali Petroleum Authority, and established a formal revenue sharing arrangement between the federal government, the country’s federal member states, and local communities.
That framework was tested in 2020, when Somalia’s first offshore licensing round opened for bidding on seven blocks, an exercise the petroleum ministry described as a milestone for transparency and investor confidence. The revenue sharing model had already been trialled using rental payments from Shell and ExxonMobil, both of which hold legacy blocks in Somali waters dating back to before the country’s civil war.
Shell and ExxonMobil suspended their Somali operations amid the collapse of central government authority in the early 1990s, but neither company formally relinquished its historical claims. Their continued rental payments, small as they are, have functioned as a quiet vote of confidence in Somalia’s eventual return to the global oil map, even as operations on those blocks remain dormant.
Why Turkey Got There First
Turkey’s position as Somalia’s leading energy partner did not happen by accident. Ankara has built a wide-ranging relationship with Mogadishu since 2011, encompassing humanitarian aid, infrastructure projects, and military training through Turkey’s largest overseas base, located in the capital. A maritime agreement signed in 2024 folded energy cooperation into that existing security relationship, giving Turkish state company TPAO first access to Somalia’s most promising offshore blocks.
That model, pairing investment with direct security guarantees, differs from the approach traditionally taken by Western oil majors, which have generally required a stable security environment before committing capital. Analysts tracking the region note that Turkey’s willingness to deploy naval escorts alongside its exploration vessels has allowed it to move first in a market that many larger companies still consider too risky.
Turkish officials have said the exploration and initial drilling phase alone could cost up to 500 million dollars, with several billion more required to bring any discovery into production. Analysts believe a confirmed find at Curad-1 would likely draw a second wave of interest from other national oil companies and independent explorers watching from the sidelines.
Security Remains the Central Risk
No discussion of Somali oil is complete without addressing security. The militant group al Shabaab continues to carry out attacks in Mogadishu and other parts of the country, and the World Bank and other multilateral institutions have repeatedly flagged instability as the single largest deterrent to foreign direct investment in Somalia’s resource sectors.
Offshore drilling reduces some of that exposure, since wells located hundreds of kilometres from shore are largely insulated from onshore violence. Onshore exploration, which Turkish officials have also flagged as a priority for 2026, carries a different risk profile entirely, requiring road access, fixed infrastructure, and a level of territorial control that remains uneven across Somalia’s federal states.
Insurance costs, logistics, and personnel safety all factor into the calculus for any company weighing entry into the Somali market, and these costs are ultimately reflected in the fiscal terms Mogadishu can realistically offer investors.
Beyond Turkey: Other Players Circling
Turkey may hold the most visible position in Somalia’s energy sector today, but it is unlikely to remain the only foreign player for long. Regional discoveries in Mozambique and Tanzania have already drawn attention from European and Asian energy firms searching for the next East African basin, and Somalia’s coastline sits within the same broader geological trend that runs from the Seychelles down through Madagascar and Kenya.
Smaller independent explorers have quietly maintained interest in Somali licensing rounds since 2019, when the government first opened bidding on 15 blocks covering roughly 75,000 square kilometres. Industry observers expect that a positive result at Curad-1 would prompt several of these independents, along with Gulf state investors already active in Somali ports and infrastructure, to formally re-engage with Mogadishu’s licensing process.
China, which has expanded its footprint across African extractive industries over the past two decades, has so far kept a lower profile in Somalia compared with its investments in Sudan, Nigeria and Angola. Analysts say that could change quickly if commercial reserves are confirmed, given Beijing’s pattern of moving into newly proven basins once the geological risk has been reduced by a first mover.
What Success Would Mean for Somalia’s Economy
Somalia remains heavily dependent on remittances, foreign aid and livestock exports, with oil currently contributing nothing to state revenue. A confirmed commercial discovery would mark the first genuine diversification opportunity for the Somali economy in a generation, potentially funding reconstruction of roads, ports and power infrastructure that decades of conflict left in ruins.
The International Monetary Fund and other lenders have previously urged Mogadishu to strengthen public financial management before any oil revenue materialises, warning that resource windfalls can just as easily entrench corruption and conflict as they can fund development. Somali officials point to the Petroleum Law’s revenue sharing formula as evidence that lessons from Nigeria, Angola and South Sudan have already been absorbed into the country’s legal design.
Whether that framework holds up once real money is at stake is a question that will only be answered over time. For now, Somalia’s federal member states are watching the same drillship as foreign investors, aware that their share of any future revenue depends on a single well working exactly as planned.
What Global Investors Are Watching Next
For international energy companies, the coming months carry outsized significance. A confirmed hydrocarbon discovery at Curad-1 would be the clearest signal yet that Somalia’s offshore basin holds commercial potential, likely triggering renewed interest in the licensing rounds Mogadishu has kept open since 2020.
Equally important will be how the government manages expectations and revenue distribution among its federal member states, a political balancing act that has complicated resource governance in other African nations. Somalia’s leadership has repeatedly pointed to its Petroleum Law as a safeguard against the mismanagement seen elsewhere, though the law has yet to be tested against the scale of revenue a genuine oil boom would bring.
Energy analysts note that even a modest discovery could reposition Somalia within regional supply chains stretching from the Gulf of Aden to the wider Indian Ocean corridor, an outcome that would carry implications well beyond the country’s own borders. For now, the industry’s eyes remain fixed on a single drillship, working quietly in deep water, with the potential to rewrite Somalia’s economic story.
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